USD’s Justice in Mexico Releases Report on U.S. Cannabis Legalization and its Impact on Mexican Drug Cartel Operations

Justice in Mexico, a research and public policy organization based at the University of San Diego, has released a report that looks at the effect of U.S. cannabis legalization on the production and flows of cannabis and other drugs from Mexico to the United States. Researchers found statistically significant evidence that the amounts of cannabis seized by Mexican and U.S. border authorities have decreased in relation to the percentage of the U.S. population living in states with legal access to cannabis. While cannabis seizures decreased, researchers found that flows of other illicit narcotics (i.e. heroin and methamphetamine) increased, as measured by seizures in Mexico and at the U.S. border, in relation to increased legal access to cannabis.

“People have been theorizing about the effect of legalizing drugs on illicit production and smuggling for a long time. This study shows that legalizing cannabis has coincided with a dramatic reduction in cannabis seizures, which cuts into cartel profits. The bad news is that production and flows of other deadlier drugs have increased correspondingly,” said David Shirk, PhD, Director of Justice in Mexico.

Key Takeaways From the Report:

• In 2009, the 3.3 million pounds of cannabis seized represented 98% of the 3.4 million pounds of illicit drugs seized at U.S. borders. By 2020, illicit cannabis seizures dropped to 600,000 pounds and accounted for a little over 70% of the 846,658 pounds of narcotics seized by U.S. border agents.
• Seizures of methamphetamine at U.S. borders have increased from 3,713 pounds in 2011 to 177,696 pounds in 2020, while the amount of heroin seized nearly doubled from just under 3,000 pounds in 2004 to 5,768 pounds in 2020.
• While the authors found statistically significant evidence that the proportion of the U.S. population with access to legal cannabis has been negatively correlated with cannabis seizures and positively correlated with heroin and methamphetamine seizures, they did not find evidence of a similar relationship with cocaine seizures and found mixed support for fentanyl seizures.

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