How are we doing?
Planning for ongoing and projected climate impacts does not look the same in every region of the country. The San Diego region’s cherished beaches, mountains, and deserts are home to a unique array of plants and animals, making San Diego the most biologically diverse county in the continental United States. However, climate change poses major challenges to our environment, community, and economic well-being. By protecting our region’s air, habitats, beaches, and water, we can ensure that all generations can continue to thrive in this century and beyond.
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Planning for climate change: mitigation, adaptation, and resilience
Discussing climate change can involve a lot of technical language. Differentiating these terms in a manner that is easy to understand improves the public access to climate-related knowledge. Empowered with this information, the communities in the San Diego region will have a greater understanding of the costs of delaying planning for climate change. Within the region, different communities are affected by climate change issues to varying extents and may not have enough resources to combat these issues effectively. Understanding these gaps in knowledge, resources, workforce, and outreach all play an essential part of planning for climate change.
The actions that individuals and organizations undertake to address climate change can generally be differentiated into three types: adaptation, mitigation, and resilience. Hover over the cards below for the definitions of each of these words.
How is our climate changing?
Due largely to the globally increasing temperatures, ocean thermal expansion coupled with melting ice is expected to raise the sea level along the San Diego coast by one (1) foot in 2050 with an increase to at least three (3) feet in 2100, even though regional nuances are also expected.
Sea level rise will exacerbate the effects of extreme high tides through more frequent coastal flooding, which we already experience. Along the West Coast of California, the frequency of high tide flooding has remained nearly constant except for a few locations. In the San Diego region from 2000 to 2015, the frequency of high tide flooding increased from 25% to 50% in the San Diego Bay and La Jolla areas which is explained primarily by regional sea level change. This effect may be compounded if it coincides with El Nino events. By 2050, high tide flooding in these areas of the Southwest Pacific is expected to occur 15 to 35 days per year, and by 2100, coastal flooding is expected to occur 345 days per year under a medium level of emissions. The ultimate long-term regional sea level rise will depend on the measures taken to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions locally and globally, with resulting temperature change.
San Diego's arid climate and Santa Ana winds create prime conditions for wildfires. Wildfires are a natural part of the region’s ecosystem, but poorly managed land, precarious infrastructure, and drier conditions can lead to wildfires of greater frequency and severity.
For a region that contends with drought conditions, rain is often a welcome reprieve. However, recent years have seen a shift toward more intense rainfall, with heavy downpours delivering large amounts of water in short periods rather than being distributed over multiple events. This has led to flooding that overwhelms San Diego’s infrastructure.
How are we planning for climate change?
The transportation sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in California. In 2019, direct emissions from vehicle tailpipes, off-road equipment, mobile sources, aviation, rail, and watercraft accounted for 40% of statewide emissions. This pattern is similar across the San Diego region. From 2015 to 2018, emissions from vehicle tailpipes alone contributed 54% to 56% of total emissions each year within the City of San Diego, even as the total emissions have decreased 5% since 2015. Building energy usage, such as lighting and appliance electricity usage, and heating and cooling natural gas usage contributes the second largest source of GHG emissions, with over 40% annually. Other GHG emissions arise from solid waste disposal, wastewater processing and from energy to convey, treat and distribute water to drinking levels.
While meeting the 2020 target was relatively painless for California and the San Diego region and its cities, it will be more challenging to meet the 2030 targets set by the State to reach 40% below 1990, let alone to be carbon neutral in the timeframe 2045-2050.
Building Energy Use
Building energy usage, such as lighting and appliance electricity usage, and heating and cooling natural gas usage contributes the second largest source of GHG emissions, with over 40% annually.
Transportation
The transportation sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in California. In 2019, direct emissions from vehicle tailpipes, off-road transportation mobile sources, aviation, rail, and watercraft accounted for 40% of statewide emissions. This pattern is observed across all cities in the San Diego region. From 2015 to 2018, emissions from vehicle tailpipes alone contributed 54% to 56% of total emissions each year within the City of San Diego, even as the total emissions have decreased 5% since 2015.
Waste and Water
Other GHG emissions originate from solid waste disposal, wastewater processing and from energy to convey, treat and distribute water to drinking levels.
Adaptation
In 2018, the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative prepared the Regional Adaptation Needs Assessment to assess how local jurisdictions are addressing climate adaptation by either integrating it into existing plans, such as General Plans or Hazard Mitigation Plans, or by developing separate Adaptation Plans.
While adaptation planning lags in its GHG mitigation efforts, in recent years, many regional and local agencies have increased their planning efforts to address climate adaptation, helped jurisdictions address climate resilience planning more holistically, and integrated across multiple planning efforts to streamline success.
An example of an on-going regional adaptation effort spearheaded by SANDAG and Caltrans is the Holistic Integration of Adaptation and Transportation Resilience Strategies (HIATRS) project which is developing guidance for an economic and equity analysis of adaptation strategies.
Climate Attitudes in the San Diego Region
In order for the San Diego region to enact policies and practices that reduce the negative impacts of climate change, the public must believe this is an area worthy of concern. According to the State of Nonprofits and Philanthropy Report’s Quarterly Index, 64% of San Diegans are alarmed or concerned about climate change. San Diegans are generally more concerned about climate change than the average American resident. The six levels of concerns are based on the Global Warming’s Six Americas. Alarmed residents are convinced global warming is happening, human-caused, an urgent threat, and strongly support climate policies. Concerned residents think human-caused global warming is happening, is a serious threat, and support climate policies. Climate change is among the top concerns of San Diego residents alongside housing and wildfires.
Local city planning for greenhouse gas mitigation
Planning GHG Mitigation
GHG mitigation planning is well underway in our region through Climate Action Plans. Eighteen (18) out of nineteen (19) jurisdictions in the region have adopted Climate Action Plans (CAP), some of which are aspirational, but the majority have legally binding GHG targets within the context of the California Environmental Quality Act. The San Diego Regional Plan Tracker by the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative is a living database of all climate-related plans and documents.
At the regional level, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) prepares and updates a Regional Plan every four years, which contains several elements that intersect with climate action planning. For example, its Sustainable Communities Strategy is an element in the Regional Plan that is required by state law to show how development patterns and transportation systems will work together to reduce GHG emissions from passenger vehicles. The latest Regional Plan 2021, shows a long-term blueprint for a lower carbon sustainable future for the San Diego region.
While meeting the 2020 GHG target was relatively painless for California and the San Diego region and its cities, it will be more challenging to meet the 2030 targets set by the State to reach 40% below 1990 levels, let alone to be carbon neutral in the timeframe 2045-2050. Globally, and collectively, countries are not on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate change targets of achieving close to carbon neutrality by 2050.