Professor Norm Miller Goes In Depth on Post-COVID Commercial Real Estate Trends with Commercial Cafe

Norm Miller, Hahn Chair of Real Estate Finance at the University of San Diego School of Business
begin quoteWe were already automating jobs and moving towards more e-commerce and COVID-19 simply accelerated underlying trends by 5 to 10 years.

Norm Miller is the Hahn Chair of Real Estate Finance at the University of San Diego School of Business. He recently took a "coffee break" with Commercial Cafe to discuss the emerging trends in commercial real estate in a post-COVID economy. Professor Miller's expertise covers a myriad of real estate topics including valuation, real estate market forecasting, commercial real estate trends and more. 

Excerpt from article as it appears in Commercial Cafe:

Expert Insights: Dr. Norm Miller on CRE Post-COVID, Opportunities & More

Our expert insight series continues with Norm Miller, PhD, the Hahn Chair of Real Estate Finance at the University of San Diego. He has helped develop real estate analytic products and tools to support financial institutions, banks and investors, including valuation models, mortgage risk products, and using machine learning for data analytics. Currently, he is helping to manage Hanapepe Holdings, an investment management firm. We caught up with him to see how different real estate asset types are changing in the post-COVID era and how the future might play out.

Considering the COVID-19 outbreak, what are your thoughts on the CRE market in the US today in terms of trends and challenges?

We were already automating jobs and moving towards more e-commerce and COVID-19 simply accelerated underlying trends by 5 to 10 years. The trade war with China has hurt the U.S. economy, but in general, we know the following about each property type:

Most at risk are: hotels, senior care, airport and tourist oriented retail, conference centers, movie theaters, student housing, regional malls, co-working platforms and many offices, especially those with proptechs will take a hit.

But at the same time, there are many property types benefitting from the accelerated changes including: data centers, bio-tech life sciences, industrial, self-storage, medical office and health clinics, grocery and drugstores, ghost kitchens, and micro-fulfilment centers. The immediate problem for those at risk is rent collection and how much the stimulus checks mitigate underlying risks that will surface in August or so.

Challenges are many, including operational and protocol changes, design changes, renegotiating loan terms (impossible for CMBS) and dealing with new consumer protection proposals that are consumer oriented but ignore the owner side of the equation.

 

Contact:

Renata Ramirez
renataramirez@sandiego.edu
(619) 260-4658

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