May 18 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.2 percent in May. The biggest contributor to the drop was a big decrease in online help wanted advertising. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were also moderately negative while there was a small decline in residential units authorized by building permits. On the positive side, local stock prices were up moderately, but consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy were up only slightly. Although the number of components up and those down were even at three apiece, the negatives outweighed the positives to push the USD Index to its second straight loss.
As was mentioned in last month’s report, economists usually look for three moves in the same direction for a leading index to indicate a turning point in the economy. This hasn’t happened yet, so the outlook for the local economy remains positive for now. But any number of things could adversely affect San Diego’s economy, including rising gas prices, rising interest rates, high housing prices making it difficult for companies to attract and retain workers, a trade war leading to barriers against San Diego companies, local government budget problems, increased taxes on some San Diegans due to the 2017 tax reforms, and turmoil in the health care markets as elements of the Affordable Care Act are eliminated. Each of these will have a negative impact on the local economy; whether collectively they are enough to derail the strong growth that has been experienced remains to be seen.
Highlights:
Residential units authorized by building permits dropped for the third month in a row, although May’s decrease was the smallest of the three. The number of residential units authorized was actually the best of the year, but after seasonal adjustment and smoothing with a moving average (see last month’s report), the trend remains negative . . Both labor market variables were down during the month. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the first time in nine months, which is a negative for the Index. This happened even though May is the third best month of the year for initial claims. On the hiring front, help wanted advertising fell for a second consecutive month. The negative news has not been reflected in the local seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which was 3.1 percent in May. That is the same as the rate in April and down from 3.7 percent in May 2017. As was the case in April, the actual unemployment rate was below 3 percent at 2.9 percent, but since May is the second best month of the year for the unemployment rate (first is December), seasonal adjustment pushed the rate to 3.1 percent. . . Local stock prices continued their roller ride, rising May after having fallen in February, risen in March, and fallen in April. . . Consumer confidence continues to chug along, rising for the 23rd month in a row. . . For the second straight month, the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators diverged from the local one. It has now increased or been unchanged for 21 consecutive months. The national labor market continues in full employment territory, with the unemployment rate at 3.8 percent and 223,000 jobs created in May. GDP growth continues to be sluggish, with the third and final estimate of growth for the first quarter coming in at 2.0 percent, which was down from the “advance” and second estimates of 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, and from 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017.
May’s drop puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 152.3, down from April’s reading of 152.7. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January through March affected the previously reported level of the Index for February and March and the changes for January and February.
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Apr 18 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.2 percent in April. The move to the downside was led by a sharp drop in residential units authorized by building permits. Also down were online help wanted advertising and local stock prices. The other three components were positive, with the outlook for the national economy up moderately and initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer confidence up slightly. But these were not enough to prevent the USD Index from suffering its first loss in 18 months.
Economists usually look for three consecutive changes in a leading indicators index to signal an upcoming turning point. So it remains to be seen as to whether April’s decrease is an aberration or a sign of things to come. For now, the outlook continues to be for a strong local economy through the end of this year and at least into the beginning of 2019. One thing that could negatively affect the local economy is the rising cost of gasoline. Heading into the Memorial Day weekend, gas prices were about 70 cents a gallon higher than they were a year ago. My estimate is that a one cent increase in gas prices translates into $1 million a month additional spending on gas, which means that San Diegans are spending an extra $70 million dollars on gas compared to a year ago. While that is not large compared to the local economy as a whole, that is money that could have been spent in the local economy on things like restaurants, retail, attractions, etc.
Highlights:
The decline in residential units authorized by building permits which started in March accelerated in April. The number of residential units authorized in April was actually up compared to March, even after seasonal adjustment. But the USD Index uses a moving average to smooth out the month-to-month fluctuations of the individual components. This gives a better indication of the trend in the components, particularly for a component such as building permits, which can fluctuate dramatically from month to month. . . The labor market variables were mixed during the month. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were positive for the seventh month in a row, but help wanted advertising fell for the first time in seven months. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for San Diego County was 3.1 percent in April, which was down from 3.2 percent in March and from 4.1 percent in April 2017. The actual unemployment rate was fell below 3 percent to 2.9 percent, but April is usually the third best month of the year for the unemployment rate (behind December and May). . . Local stock prices remain volatile, like the broader market averages, and have now dropped in two of the last three months. . . The one consistent component remains consumer confidence, which has now increased for the 22 straight months. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators moved in the opposite direction of the local index and pushed its positive or unchanged streak to 20 consecutive months. The national labor market remains strong, with the unemployment dropping below the four percent mark that economists view as full employment. Growth is still lagging though, with the second estimate of first quarter GDP growth at 2.2 percent. This was down from the “advance” estimate for the first quarter of 2.3 percent and the 2.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2017.
April’s gain puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 152.7, down from March’s reading of 153.0. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January and March affected the previously reported level of the Index for January.
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Mar 18 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.5 percent in March. Leading the way to the upside was a strong positive move by initial claims for unemployment insurance. Also up but to a lesser extent were local stock prices, consumer confidence, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. The only down component was residential units authorized by building permits, which were down moderately.
March’s increase marked the 17th straight month that the USD Index has advanced or remained unchanged (15 of those months were increases). It was also the third consecutive month that it has hit an all-time high. The outlook for the local economy thus continues to be positive at least through the end of 2018. Job growth for the first quarter of 2018 in San Diego County was solid, with wage and salary employment increasing by 26,700 compared to the same quarter in 2017. That is a slightly below the gain of 28,600 jobs for 2017 as a whole. The strongest sectors were health care (+5,500 jobs), professional, scientific, and technical services (+4,500), construction (+4,200), manufacturing (+3,800), and government (+3,300). While health care, construction, and government have been doing well recently, it is encouraging to see a pickup in professional, scientific, and technical services and manufacturing, as jobs in those sectors tend to be higher paying ones. The lagging sectors were finance and insurance (-400) and leisure and hospitality (-800).
Highlights:
After three consecutive monthly gains, residential units authorized by building permits turned down in March. Despite that, it was a good first quarter for building permits, as residential units authorized were more than doubled (+102 percent) compared to the same quarter in 2017. As has been the case in recent years, multi-family units authorized led the way, being up 150 percent in 2018. But single-family units authorized also had a nice gain of 47 percent. . . Both labor market variables were up during the month. Initial claims for unemployment insurance followed a strong February with a nearly as good March, indicating that job loss remains low. Although help wanted advertising was up for the fifth straight month, the gain in March was the weakest of the five month. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for San Diego County was 3.2 percent in March, which was down from 3.5 percent in February and from 4.2 percent in March 2017. . . Local stock prices reversed course after a decline in February. For the first quarter, local stock prices were up 3.13 percent. This outpaced the broader market averages, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard and Poor’s 500 Index actually declining in the quarter (-2.49 percent and -1.22 percent respectively) while the NASDAQ Composite Index was up 2.32 percent.. . . Consumer confidence was up for the 21st consecutive month. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now increased or been unchanged for 19 months in a row. Despite that, growth continues to be sluggish, with the “advance” estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2018 coming in at 2.3 percent. This matches the growth rate for 2017 as a whole, but was down from the 2.9 percent growth rate of the fourth quarter.
February’s gain puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 153.0, up from January’s reading of 152.2. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for October 2017 and February 2018 affected the previously reported changes for October and February and the levels of the Index for October and November.
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Feb 18 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7 percent in February. The upward move was led by strong gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. These were supported by moderate increases in building permits and consumer confidence. The only thing that prevented a third consecutive month with all components up was a decline in local stock prices.
With February’s increase, the USD Index has now advanced or remained unchanged for 16 consecutive months. For the second month in a row, it has hit a new all-time high. As a result, there is no change from the previously reported outlook for the local economy: positive growth in the economy at least through the end of 2018. While the short-term continues to look bright, both the local and national economies have to deal the long-run problem of shrinking employment opportunities due to improvements in technology. The internet has reduced the need for employees in banks, travel agencies, retailing, and other industries. Automation has already had a big impact on manufacturing employment and may impact industries such as restaurants, retailing, and transportation. The big long-term question is whether the improvements in technology will lead to opportunities elsewhere as has been the case in the past. When wagons were replaced by trucks, the former wagon drivers could go drive trucks. But what will truck drivers do if driverless vehicle technology is perfected?
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits continued to advance, although not at the same pace as the last two months. The USD Index uses a moving average to smooth month-to-month fluctuations and capture the trend in a component, so the big gains in December and January still contribute significantly to the up move in February. . . Both labor market variables were up sharply. Initial claims for unemployment insurance had its biggest gain in almost three years (since March 2015). On the other side of the labor market, help wanted advertising was up for the fourth month in a row and up sharply for the third month in a row. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for San Diego County was 3.5 percent in February, which was unchanged from January’s rate but down from the 4.4 percent rate in February 2017. . . Local stock prices fell for the first time since last August. February saw great volatility in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1,000 points in a day twice during the month. This affected local stocks, even though most San Diego companies are smaller ones that trade in the over-the-counter market. . . Consumer confidence continues to chug along, registering its 20th consecutive monthly increase. . . The outlook for the national economy remains positive, with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators up for the 17th time in 18 months. While the national labor market remains strong, GDP growth continues to lag behind historic standards. For 2017, real GDP increased by 2.3 percent, which is higher than the 1.6 percent growth of 2016 but well below the 3.5 percent average growth rate from the post-World War II period to the start of the Great Recession.
February’s gain puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 152.2, up from January’s reading of 151.1. Although there were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for December and January and in local stock prices for January, there was no change in the previously reported changes and the level of the USD Index for those months.
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Jan 18 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 1.4 percent in January. For the second month in a row, all six of the components were up. Leading the way were big gains in building permits, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. There were also moderate increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices, while consumer confidence was up slightly.
January’s gain was the second straight strong increase in the USD Index and the 15th month in a row where it had not fallen. The gain pushed the USD Index to an all-time high of 151.1, surpassing the previous high of 150.8 which was reached in May and June of 2000. Given the strong performance of the USD Index, particularly in the last two months, the outlook for the local economy is positive at least through the end of 2018. Although they are unlikely to derail the local economy, there are some potential problems that could have some adverse impacts. One is the high cost of housing, which makes it more difficult for people to live in San Diego and which makes it difficult for local companies to attract workers. Another is a likely rise in interest rates, which would make purchasing a home here even more difficult. Finally, something that won’t have an impact this year but might in the future is the recently passed federal tax bill. With its limitations on the deductibility of state and local taxes and mortgage interest, some people could see their taxes rise in the years ahead.
Highlights: After a huge December, the momentum in residential units authorized by building permits continued in January. Over 1,200 residential units were authorized in the month and both single-family and multi-family units authorized were solid. This signals employment in the construction industry in the months to come, activity in real estate and finance when the units are finished, and eventually increased sales of furniture and appliances as the units are sold or leased. . . For the third month in a row, both labor market variables were positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to trend downward, which is a positive for the Index as it indicates a decrease in job loss. On the hiring side, help wanted advertising was up sharply for the second month in a row had its biggest gain in almost three years. As of the writing of this report, the local unemployment rate for San Diego County for January had not been released. For December, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.3 percent, which compares to a 3.1 percent rate in November and a 4.4 percent rate in December 2016. . . After a gain of almost 20 percent in 2017, local stock prices started 2018 with a positive move. . . While the gain in consumer confidence was the smallest of the six components in the USD Index, that component has the longest current stretch of increases. The advance in January was its 19th straight monthly gain. . . Trailing close behind consumer confidence is the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which has increased or been unchanged for 17 consecutive months. The outlook for the national economy remains positive at this point. GDP growth continues to be solid but not spectacular, with the second estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 coming in at an annualized growth rate of 2.5 percent, which is down from the “advance” estimate released last month of 2.6 percent.
January’s gain puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 151.1, up from December’s reading of 149.0. Revisions in the changes in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for October and November affected the changes for those months and the level of the USD Index for October.
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Dec 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.6 percent in November and another 1.4 percent in December. December’s sharp rise was fueled by a huge gain in building permits, along with strong gains for initial claims for unemployment insurance, online help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. Local stock prices and consumer confidence were both up slightly as all six components were positive for the month.
December’s gain was the largest since March 2015 and pushed the USD Index close to an all-time high (the Index topped the 150 level for a few months back in 2000). It also marked the 14th straight month in which the Index was either positive or unchanged. The outlook for the local economy remains positive through the end of 2018. Wage and salary employment growth of about 25,000 is expected for next year. That number has been higher in the past, but with the local unemployment rate at an all-time low (see below), job growth could be limited by a shortage of workers. If wages increase due to the tight labor market, that might help in attracting workers to the region and help with housing affordability.
Highlights: A huge surge in December pushed residential units authorized by building permits over the 10,000 mark for the third year in a row. Total residential units authorized were down only 2.4 percent compared to 2016. Single-family units authorized finished the year up 73 percent from 2016, which pushed the number of single-family units authorized over the 4,000 level for the first time since 2006. This gain though was offset by a 24 percent drop in multi-family units authorized. . . Both labor market variables were up and up sharply in December. Job loss is not a problem as initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to their lowest level since April 2006. In November, help wanted advertising turned positive for the first time since February, and December’s big gain was the best in almost two years. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to an all-time low of 3.1 percent in November before edging up to 3.3 percent in December. This compares to a rate of 3.7 percent in October and 4.4 percent in December 2016. . . Local stock prices finished the year on a positive note and ended the year up 19.7 percent. This compares with gains of 25.1 percent, 19.4 percent, and 28.2 percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite indexes respectively. . . Although the gains were not as spectacular as some of the other components, consumer confidence registered its 18th consecutive monthly gain. . . The outlook for the national economy continues to be strong. The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now increased or been unchanged for 16 straight months. In terms of macroeconomic data, the “advance” estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at an annualized growth rate of 2.6 percent, which compares to gains of 1.2 percent, 3.1 percent, and 3.2 percent for the first three quarters of 2017.
December’s gain puts the USD Burnham-Moores Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 149.0, up from November’s reading of 147.0. A correction of an error in recording local stock prices resulted in changes in the previously reported values of the Index for September and October and in the change for September.
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Nov 17 Synopsis
Please refer to the December 2017 summary for a combined November/December highlights.
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Oct 17 Synopsis
Updated February 28, 2018: Correction to index made.
Combined Sept./Oct. 2017 Summary:
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in September and another 0.6 percent in October. For October, the gain was led by a huge rise in the outlook for the national economy. There were more modest gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance, local stock prices, and consumer confidence. The only negative component was building permits, but they were down only slightly. Online help wanted advertising was unchanged.
With the gains in September and October, the USD Index has now increased or been unchanged for an entire year. The outlook then continues to be for positive but slower growth for the local economy at least through most of 2018. A review of the local economy through the third quarter of 2017 shows an increase of 23,300 wage and salary jobs compared to the same period in 2016. In contrast, wage and salary jobs increased by 35,800 in all of 2016 compared to 2015. So growth in San Diego’s economy has already slowed. The sectors with the biggest increase in jobs are government (+6,200 jobs), health care (+5,000), construction (+4,300), real estate (+1,600), and finance and insurance (+1,200).
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits dropped for the second month in a row in October. Through the third quarter, total units authorized were down 13.6 percent compared to the same period in 2016. Single-family units authorized were up 54 percent for 2017 vs. 2016, but multi-family units authorized were down by a third. . . The labor market variables were mixed, but with a positive bias. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell in October, which led to the first positive reading for this component since May. On the hiring front, help wanted advertising did not increase, but the unchanged reading broke a streak of seven consecutive declines in that component. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent in October. This compares to a rate of 4.1 percent in September and 4.7 percent in October 2016. . . After a sharp rise in September, local stock prices added a little more in October. Through the third quarter, local stock prices were up 19.8 percent. This compares favorably with the broader market averages, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite indexes up 13.4 percent, 12.5 percent, and 20.7 percent respectively. . . Although the gains have not been as large earlier in the year, consumer confidence continues to chug along, with the component now up for 16 months in a row. . . The outlook for the national economy is strong. The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now increased for 14 consecutive months. In terms of macroeconomic data, the second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter came in at an annualized growth rate of 3.3 percent, which is up from the 3.1 percent growth of the second quarter. The national labor market is in good shape, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1 percent and wage and salary job up a solid 261,000 in October.
October’s gain puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 146.2, up from September’s reading of 145.4. A revision in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for June changed the previously reported value of the Index and the change for that month.
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Sep 17 Synopsis
Please see the October summary for a combined highlight report of September and October 2017.
Updated February 28, 2018: Correction to index made.
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Aug 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.1 percent in August. Leading the gain were moderate increases in outlook for the national economy and residential units authorized by building permits. There was also a small gain in consumer confidence. The three gains were matched by declines in three components. While initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices were just barely negative, there was a sharp decline in online help wanted advertising. But it was not enough to prevent the USD Index from registering its 10th straight month without a decline.
Although it was close, August’s increase leaves the outlook for the local economy the same as has been mentioned in previous reports. Positive but slower growth is expected for the rest of the year and at least through the first half of 2018. One negative that has developed in the wake of Hurricane Harvey has been the increase in local gas prices. After peaking at $3.16 a gallon on September 7, prices have dropped back a bit to $3.10 a gallon. This compares to a price of roughly $2.77 a year ago. With every one cent increase, an estimated $1 million a month is taken out of the local economy. In this case, drivers in San Diego County are spending an extra $33 million a month on gasoline when they could have been spending that money on other goods and services. While annoying, that amount is not large enough to disrupt the local economy and is not likely to be sustained for a significant period of time.
Highlights: The trend for residential units authorized by building permits was positive for the third month in a row. As was mentioned in last month’s report, the USD Index uses a moving average to smooth the data of volatile components. So August benefitted from the big levels seen in June and July. . . Both labor market variables dropped for the third straight month. Although negative, the pace of the decline for initial claims for unemployment insurance appears to be easing up. The opposite is occurring with help wanted advertising, where August’s big decline was the largest of a six month losing streak. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent in August. This compares to a rate of 4.4 percent in July and 4.7 percent in August 2016. Seasonality is still significant as August is usually the second worst month of the year for the unemployment rate. . . After a tiny gain in July, local stock prices slipped a tiny amount in August. While local stock prices were higher on August 31 than on July 31, the USD Index uses the average value for the entire month to determine the level of stock prices for that month. The average in August was just slightly lower than the average for July. . . Consumer confidence continued its winning streak with a 14th consecutive increase. . . The outlook for the national economy was solid once again. The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now increased every month for the last year. The third and final estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter came in at an annualized growth rate of 3.1 percent, which is up from the “advance” estimate of 2.6 percent and the second estimate of 3.0 percent. The national labor market eased up a bit in August when compared to July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4 percent and wage and salary job growth falling to 156,000.
August’s gain reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 145.2, up from July’s reading of 145.1. There were no revisions in any of the components, so there were no revisions in any of the previously reported values of the Index or changes.
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Jul 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.5 percent in July. The move to the upside was led by a huge increase in building permits and supported by smaller gains in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. Local stock prices were also higher, but just barely so. These gains outweighed losses in in initial claims for unemployment insurance and in help wanted advertising to push the USD Index to its eighth increase in nine months.
With July’s increase, the outlook for the local economy remains for solid growth for the rest of 2017 and through at least the first half of 2018. One potential problem for the local economy is the soaring price of housing, both in terms of purchasing and renting. While this is good for people who own property, the local economy is hurt because companies either have trouble attracting workers or have to pay their workers more, thus increasing labor costs. The reason for the surge in housing prices is simple supply and demand, with demand strong and supply tight. Since the bottom in 2010, almost 145,000 jobs have been added to the local economy. To accommodate those workers and their families, about 115,000 residential units should have been built. Instead, only about 47,000 units have been authorized by building permits, leaving a shortage of 68,000 units. Some would argue that this shortage is overstated as 2010 prices and rents were artificially low. But it could also be understated as it doesn’t factor in units taken off the market, either through demolition or through the relatively new phenomenon of
of short-term vacation rentals, which have affected an estimated 10,000 units.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits followed June’s monster showing of over 2,100 units authorized with another 1,000+ units authorized month. The USD Index uses a moving average to smooth the data from wild month-to-month fluctuations, which is particularly important when dealing with volatile components such as residential units authorized. July’s result finally puts the pace of permit activity in 2017 ahead of that for 2016. . . For the second month in a row, both the labor market variables were negative. Job loss as measured by initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up slightly in July while labor demand as measured by help wanted advertising decreased for the fifth consecutive month. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent in July. This compares to a rate of 4.2 percent in June and 4.8 percent in July 2016. July is usually the worst month of the year for the unemployment rate due to the summer break in schools. . . There was not much movement in either investor or consumer confidence in July. Local stock prices began the second half virtually flat, while the 13th consecutive gain in consumer confidence was the second lowest of streak. . . The outlook for the national economy continues to be positive, with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators increasing for the 11th straight month. The second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter came in at an annualized growth rate of 3.0 percent, which is up from the “advance” estimate of 2.6 percent released last month. The national labor market improved in July compared to June, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3 percent and wage and salary job growth jumping to 209,000.
July’s gain reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 145.1, up from June’s reading of 144.4. Although there were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for May and June and in help wanted advertising in June, none of the previously reported values of the Index or the changes were affected.
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Jun 17 Synopsis
After lagging the entire year, residential units authorized by building permits had a huge month, with more than 2,100 units authorized. That is the most in a single month since March 2005. It was not enough though to completely undo the damage done in the first five months of the year. Through the first half 2017, total residential units authorized dropped 16.90 percent compared to the same period in 2016. In a reversal of recent trends, single-family units authorized are up 34.32 percent over last year while multi-family units authorized fell 31.31 percent. . . Both the labor market variables were negative in June. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the first time in nine months, which is a negative for the Index, while help wanted advertising fell for the fourth consecutive month. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent in June. This compares to a rate of 3.8 percent in May and 4.7 percent in June 2016. . . Local stock prices closed the first half on a positive note and finished up 9.3 percent compared to the beginning of the year. That compares to gains of 8.0 percent, 8.2 percent, and 14.1 percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite Index respectively. . . With the increase in June, consumer confidence has risen every month for an entire year. . . The outlook for the national economy remains bright as the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased for the 10th consecutive month. The advance estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter came in at an annualized growth rate of 2.6 percent, which is up from the 1.4 percent growth experienced in the first quarter. The national labor market was solid in June; the unemployment rate rose but is still at a relatively low 4.4 percent, and there was good employment growth of 138,000 wage and salary jobs.
June’s gain reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 144.4, up from May’s reading of 143.2. Although there were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for April and May, none of the previously reported values of the Index or the changes were affected.
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May 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.1 percent in May. Leading the way to the upside were moderate gains in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices were also positive, but only slightly so. These gains were enough to offset losses in residential units authorized by building permits and help wanted advertising to push the USD Index to its sixth gain in seven months.
May’s gain represents a classic glass half full / half empty situation. While it was positive, the gain was small, and follows an unchanged reading in April. None of the components moved significantly in either direction. This falls in line with the previously reported outlook of a positive but slower growing local economy. The trend mentioned in last month’s report of the local unemployment rate falling even as the rate of job growth slows continued in May. Even after taking into account that May is the second best month of the year for the unemployment rate as companies gear up for summer, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell below four percent for the first time since October 2006. This occurred even though wage and salary employment increased by only 20,300 compared to May 2016. An interesting pattern that has developed is that the USD Index has stalled in each of the last two summers. It is not a problem with seasonality, as each of the components in the Index is seasonally adjusted. What the pattern plays out this summer remains to be seen.
Highlights: The trend in residential units authorized by building permits continues to be negative. It fell for the fifth month in a row, although May’s drop was less significant than in the previous months. The slowdown in construction plans comes at a bad time as both rents and sales prices have soared. This is having a negative impact on both employees and employers, as the former are pressed to find affordable housing while the latter have to pay higher wages, if they can find employees at all. . . For the third straight month, the labor market variables were mixed. The pattern again was that initial claims for unemployment insurance were positive while help wanted advertising was negative. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in May. This compares to a rate of 4.0 percent in April and 4.5 percent in May 2016. . . After dipping slightly in April, local stock prices rebounded to continue the post-election rally. Combined with the gain in consumer confidence, which advanced for the 11th consecutive month, both investors and consumers are feeling positive about the outlook for the local economy. . . Another component with a long winning streak is the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which was up for the ninth straight month. The national economy news is mixed, with the third and final estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter coming in at an annualized growth rate of 1.4 percent. While that was up compared to “advance” estimate of 0.7 percent and the second estimate of 1.2 percent, it is still relatively weak when compared to the historic average. The results for the national labor market in May mirrors what is happening locally, with the unemployment rate falling (to 4.3 percent) even though employment growth was weak (a gain of 138,000 jobs).
May’s gain reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 143.2, up from April’s revised reading of 143.0. Numerous revisions in different components led to revisions in the previously reported values of the Index for January through April and in the previously reported changes for February and March.
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Apr 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in April. Three of the components were positive, with consumer confidence up sharply and initial claims for unemployment insurance and the outlook for the national economy both moderately positive. These were offset by another big drop in residential units authorized by building permits and smaller declines in help wanted advertising and in local stock prices.
While not negative, April’s unchanged mark broke a string of five consecutive monthly increases for the USD Index. Whether this is the start of a significant shift remains to be seen. For now, the outlook for the local economy remains for positive but slower growth in local economy for the rest of this year and at least into the first part of 2018. Part of that slower growth was manifested in the latest employment report. According to the state’s employment development department, year-over-year job growth was 18,200 in April, which is the smallest year-over-year gain since March 2012. By comparison, payroll employment increased by 35,800 for all of 2016. More data is needed to determine whether April’s slowdown is the start of a trend or just a one month aberration. The slow job growth did not affect the unemployment rate, which fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent. That is near the full employment level of unemployment, and one possible link between the two data points might be that the slow job growth is not due to the lack of demand for workers by businesses, but to the lack of supply workers available
Highlights: The performance of residential units authorized by building permits continues to be a drag. Because of the way the Index is calibrated, any change of one percent or more is considered significant. Residential units authorized have now decreased significantly for the last four months in a row. Building permits are an important leading indicator because permits taken out now signals future employment in the construction industry as the units are built, employment in real estate and finance as the units are rented or sold, and economic activity such as purchases of furniture and appliances as people move into the units. . . The labor market variables were mixed again in April. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were positive for the seventh straight month while help wanted advertising was down for the second month in a row. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.0 percent in April. This compares to a rate of 4.2 percent in March and 4.9 percent in April 2016. . . The rally in the stock market stalled in April as local stock prices fell for the first time since the election. . . Consumer confidence continues to be the bright spot, having increase significantly in each of the last five months and has increased for 10 consecutive months. . . The outlook for the national economy remains positive as the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced for the eight month in a row. The second estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter showed annualized growth of 1.2 percent. This compares to 2.1 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 1.6 percent growth for all of 2016. The results for the national labor market were pretty good in April, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.4 percent and solid wage and salary employment growth of 211,000 jobs.
April’s unchanged reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 143.1, the same as March’s revised reading. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January and March and for help wanted advertising in March affected the previously reported changes in those months and the level of the Index for March. To view the previously reported values for the Index and for the individual components, please visit the Website address given below.
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Mar 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in March. Leading the way to the upside were sharp increases in consumer confidence and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Also up but to a lesser extent were local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy. On the downside, building permits were down significantly again while help wanted advertising dropped by a lesser amount.
March’s increase was the fifth straight monthly increase for the USD Index. As a result, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what has been indicated in recent reports: positive but slower growth through the rest of 2017 and possibly into early 2018. Through the first quarter of 2017, the data show that that forecast is playing out. Wage and salary employment increased by 28,600 compared to the first quarter of 2016. In contrast, 35,800 jobs were added in all of 2016. The strongest sectors through the first quarter were government (+6,900 jobs), health care (+5,300), construction (+4,600), financial activities (+3,500), professional, scientific, and technical services (+2,700) and other services (+2,400). Of the growth in the government sector, the bulk of that is in local government (+5,400), primarily in education (+3,500). Sectors that are lagging this year compared to last year are leisure and hospitality (growth down by 5,100 jobs), construction (-1,600), and manufacturing (-1,600). Sectors that are doing better are financial activities (+1,700) and government (+1,000).
The trend for residential units authorized by building permits remains sharply negative. While the actual number of units authorized in March was higher than January and February combined, the USD Index uses a moving average to smooth out the month-to-month fluctuations in the volatile components such as building permits. For the first quarter of 2017, total residential units authorized were down 41 percent compared to the same period in 2016. Single-family units authorized were actually up 17 percent this year. But that was overwhelmed by the 59 percent drop in multi-family units authorized for the quarter. . . The labor market variables were mixed in March. While initial claims for unemployment insurance were positive for the sixth consecutive month, help wanted advertising fell for the first time since November. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in March. This compares to a rate of 4.2 percent in February and 4.9 percent in March 2016. . . Local stock prices had another positive month and ended the first quarter up 7.8 percent for the year so far. In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite Index were up 4.6 percent, 5.5 percent, and 9.8 percent respectively in the first quarter. . . Consumer confidence had its biggest one month gain since April 2012 and has now increased for nine straight months. . . The outlook for the national economy remains positive as the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators stretched its winning streak to seven months. As of this writing, the “advance” estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter had not been released. The results for the national labor market were mixed in March, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.5 percent despite a relative weak gain of 98,000 payroll jobs.
March’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 143.2, up from February’s reading of 142.6. There were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for November and February and for help wanted advertising in February, which affected the previously reported level of the Index for November but not any of the previously reported changes.
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Feb 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in February. The gain was led by strong gains in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. There were also moderate gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices and a small gain in help wanted advertising. For the second month in a row, the only negative component was building permits, which was down sharply again.
With January’s increase, the USD Index has now increased for four consecutive months. Also positive was that the breadth of the advance was strong, with five of the six components up for the month. This suggests that the local economy is picking up steam and is expected to do better than what had previously been expected. The forecast for employment growth for San Diego County is now at 30,000 for 2017, compared to the previous forecast of 25,000. As usual, there are caveats. This is barring any sort of trade war or any other international conflict. The domestic economy looks sound. So much so that the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25 percent at its last meeting and is expected to increase them a further 50 basis points by the end of the year. While this will put more money into the hands of savers, a big question is how this will affect borrowers, particularly in the housing market. Local building permit activity is already down considerably this year (see below), and an increase in interest rates is expected to slow the single family market.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits had a second straight bad month to open 2017. For the first two months of the year, total residential units authorized were down 69 percent compared to the same period last year. Single family units are actually up this year; all of the damage has come in multi-family units authorized. Only 193 multi-family units have been authorized this year compared to the 1,545 that were authorized last January and February. . . Both labor market variables were positive for the third month in a row. After seasonal adjustment, initial claims for unemployment insurance hit their lowest level in almost 10 years (since March 2007), which is a positive for both the local economy and for the USD Index. On the hiring side of the labor market, help wanted advertising was positive but only slightly so. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in February. This compares to a rate of 4.4 percent in January and 4.8 percent in February 2016. . . Local stock prices continued to match the rally in the broader market averages, signaling that investors are optimistic about the prospects for San Diego based companies. . . Consumer confidence continues to surge and has now advanced for eight consecutive months. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased for the sixth consecutive month, with the last three months particularly strong. So the outlook for the national economy remains positive. The third estimate for GDP growth for the fourth quarter showed 2.1 percent growth, which up from the 1.9 percent reading given in the advance and second estimates for the quarter. The national labor market remains solid with 235,000 jobs added in February and the unemployment rate falling to 4.7 percent.
February’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 142.6, up from January’s revised reading of 142.1. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for November and December and for help wanted advertising in January affected the previously reported change for January and levels of the Index for January and November.
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Jan 17 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7 percent in January. Three of the components—consumer confidence, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy—were up sharply during the month. There were also smaller gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices. The only negative component was building permits, which was down significantly.
January’s increase was the third straight solid gain for the USD Index. This follows a six month stretch from May to October of last year in which the Index was either down or flat, which led to a forecast of slower growth in the local economy for 2017. That forecast remains unchanged at this point, although continued strength in the Index may eventually lead to a revision. A lot will depend on the policies proposed by the new administration and whether or not they can be enacted. Among the proposals that have been mentioned that might benefit the local economy are spending on infrastructure, tax cuts, and a boost in defense spending. On the latter, San Diego could benefit from increased personnel and from increased shipbuilding as the Navy expands. On the downside, increased trade barriers, particularly against Mexico and China, could hurt local companies that sell in an international market. Any gains from manufacturing returning to the United States would not likely benefit San Diego as those would involve heavy manufacturing, which is not a significant sector of the local economy.
Highlights: After finishing 2016 with three strong months, residential units authorized by building permits dried up in January. The 166 units authorized was the lowest monthly total since November 2010. . . Both labor market variables were positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much higher in January than in December, which would normally be a negative for the Index. But January is the worst month of the year for initial claims. Seasonal adjustment led to the fourth consecutive positive reading that component. Help wanted advertising has a more modest two month gain, but the magnitude of the increase in January was the largest in almost a year. As of the writing of this report, the state Employment Development Department had not yet released the unemployment report for January 2017. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December 2016 was 4.5 percent. . . Local stock prices continued to match the rally in the broader market averages, signaling that investors are optimistic about the prospects for San Diego based companies. . . Consumer confidence had its biggest one month increase since August 2013 and has now increased for seven months in a row. . . A similar thing happened with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators, posted its biggest gain since July 2014. With five consecutive gains in the national index, the outlook for the national economy is positive. The current data are mixed: While the labor market is doing well, GDP growth is still relatively slow. The second estimate for GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016 was 1.9 percent, which is the same as the “advance” estimate given in January and well below the historic average growth rate of about 3.5 percent. Factors contributing to the slow growth in the quarter are a drop in exports and Federal government expenditures, along with an increase in imports.
January’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 142.0, up from December’s revised reading of 141.3. There was a revision in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for November which affected the previously reported values for November and December.
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Dec 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7 percent in December. For the first time since April 2015, all six components were up. Leading the way to the upside were strong gains in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. There were more moderate increases in building permits, local stock prices, and help wanted advertising. Bringing up the rear was a small positive move for initial claims for unemployment insurance.
December’s increase in the USD Index was the largest since November of last year, and it pushed the Index to its highest level August 2006. The strength and breadth of the increase was impressive and may eventually lead to a readjustment of the outlook for the local economy. For now, the forecast remains for slower growth in 2017 than in 2016. A number of factors could adversely affect the local economy in the coming year. First, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue increasing interest rates. An increase of at least 50 basis points is expected for the year, which could have negative ramifications for the local housing market. There are also a number of issues related to the international economy. Among them is a potential trade war as the new administration has threatened action against both Mexico and China. This potential trade war comes in an environment where growth is already slowing in China and where there is political and financial turmoil in Europe.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits finished the year with a third consecutive monthly gain. For the year overall, residential units authorized were up 8 percent. But there was a sharp contrast in the composition of the permits, with multi-family units up 26 percent in 2016 and single-family units down by over 28 percent. . . The labor market variables were both positive in December. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell for the third month in a row, which is a positive for the Index. The increase in help wanted advertising broke a string of eight straight declines in that component. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in December, which was down up 4.3 percent in November but down from 5.1 percent in December 2015. . . Consumer confidence experienced its largest one-month gain in over three years (since August 2013) and has now increased for six months in a row. . . Local stock prices benefitted from the post-election rally in the stock market to push higher in December. However, local stocks finished the year down 1.5 percent. That was in stark contrast to the broader market averages, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite rising by 13.4 percent, 14.4 percent, and 7.5 percent respectively. . . The healthy gain in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators suggests that the outlook remains positive for the national economy in 2017. The news was good on the employment front, with 227,000 wage and salary jobs added. But the national unemployment rate edged up slightly from 4.7 percent in November to 4.8 percent in December. The “advance” estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter was disappointing, with an annualized growth rate of 1.9 percent. This compares to a 3.5 percent growth rate for the third quarter.
December’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 141.2, up from November’s reading of 140.2. There were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for July through November, but that did not affect the previously reported values of the Index or the monthly changes.
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Nov 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.3 percent in November. Solid gains were posted by residential units authorized by building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and consumer confidence. On the downside, there were small declines in local stock prices and help wanted advertising. The outlook for the national economy was unchanged.
November’s increase in the USD Index was the strongest since April and would have been even stronger except for anomaly in how the local stock prices are calculated (see below). But the gain was only the second since April, compared to four down months and an unchanged one. While November’s increase is welcome news, more is needed in the coming months to adjust the outlook, which is currently for a positive but slower growing local economy in 2017. Wage and salary employment is expected to increase by about 25,000 in the county during the year, which is less than what the region has been experiencing in the last few years. Because of the slower rate of job growth, the local unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.6 percent from the current 4.3 percent. Higher interest rates and affordability issues will limit housing prices, which are expected to increase by low single digits in the coming year.
Highlights: November is usually the worst month of the year for residential units authorized by building permits, but strong numbers for multi-family units authorized pushed the component to a second straight gain. . . The labor market variables continued to be mixed. November is usually the best month of the year for initial claims for unemployment insurance, but the component was positive, even with seasonal adjustment. Help wanted advertising moved in the opposite direction and has now declined for eight straight months. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in November, which was down from 4.8 percent in October and from 5.0 percent in November 2015. . . Consumer confidence has risen sharply since the election and has increased for five consecutive months. . . Local stock prices were considered down in November even though they were higher at the end of the month than at the beginning. This is because the value of stock prices for a month is calculated by taking the average of all the daily closing values of the local stock index for that month. Strength at the beginning of October and weakness at the beginning of November led to the odd result. Also, while the broader market averages were reaching record highs after the election, local stock prices are more than seven percent below the high reached on September 22. . . Although there was no change in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators, the national economic news remains positive, with 178,000 jobs added during in November and the national unemployment rate falling to 4.6 percent. The third and final estimate for GDP growth for the third quarter was good, coming in at 3.5 percent, compared to the second estimate of 3.2 percent and the “advance” estimate of 2.9 percent.
November’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 140.2, up from October’s revised reading of 139.8. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic for September and local stock prices for October led to the value of the Index being revised downward from the previously reported value of 139.9 and the change for the month going from unchanged to -0.1 percent.
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Oct 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in October. There were more positive components than negative ones, with consumer confidence being up moderately as the best performing component. Residential units authorized by building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the outlook for the national economy were up only slightly. These were offset by moderate declines in local stock prices and help wanted advertising.
September’s unchanged reading was the second in a row for the USD Index. Combined with the drop in the late spring / early summer, the Index has been roughly flat for the last eight months. Whether the next major move is a surge to the upside or a plunge downward is uncertain at this point. The recovery, both nationally and locally, has gone on for a long time and may be getting long in the tooth. Nationally, there has been 80 straight months of positive private sector job growth. Locally, the economy has added more than 30,000 jobs in four of the last five years. For now, the outlook continues to be for positive job growth locally in 2017, but not enough to push the local unemployment rate much lower than the current level. Potential problems include a likely increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and weakness in the global economy, with growth in China slowing and continued turmoil in the European Union. On the positive side, even with an increase in interest rates, they will still be near historic lows. And continued low gas prices will give consumers more money to spend elsewhere in the economy.
Highlights: The seesaw behavior of residential units authorized by building permits continued with a positive month after a decline in September. Once again, the gain was driven by large numbers of multi-family units being authorized. While this is good in terms of helping with housing affordability, the economic impact of multi-family construction is much less than that of single-family construction, particularly for construction employment. . . The labor market variables were mixed in October. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were slightly positive, indicating that the rate of job loss decreased during the month. But help wanted advertising continues to be weak, falling for the seventh month in a row. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in October, which was up from 4.7 percent in September but down from 5.1 percent in October 2015. . . Consumer confidence continues to rebound and was up for the fourth consecutive month in October. Low gas prices, a good labor market, and wages finally increasing are all possible reasons for the improvement in consumer confidence. . . Local stock prices were down in October, breaking a string of four monthly gains. The post-election rally that has seen stocks hit record closing levels will be reflected in the November numbers. . . After being positive in September, the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced again in October. The national economic news continues to be solid but not spectacular. Job growth was okay in October, with 161,000 jobs added during the month. There was additional good news on the labor front in that the job growth numbers for August and September were revised upward by 44,000 jobs. As for GDP growth, the second estimate for the third quarter came in at 3.2 percent compared to the “advance” estimate of 2.9 percent reported last month. This is up sharply from the first two quarters of 2016, when GDP growth was 0.8 percent and 1.4 percent respectively.
September’s unchanged reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.9. There were no revisions to any of the components and thus no change in any of the previously reported values or change in the Index.
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Sep 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in September. Increasing and decreasing components were even at three apiece. On the positive side was local stock prices, consumer confidence, and the outlook for the national economy. These were offset by declines in residential units authorized by building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and help wanted advertising.
September’s unchanged reading leaves the USD Index roughly where it was in February. The interim has been a roller coaster, with the Index initially surging but then slumping in the early summer. It has flattened out in the last couple of months, so the outlook for the local economy is unchanged from what has been reported in recent months. The local economy is expected to be positive at least through the first half of 2017, but the rate of growth is likely to be slower. Through the first three quarters on 2016, employment is up about 35,000 jobs compared to the same period in 2015. Employment is up in every major sector, but the strongest gains have been in health care (+6,500 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+6,300), government (+5,500, primarily in education), administrative, support, and waste services (+3,900), and construction (+2,600). The initial forecast for 2017 is for an increase of 30,000 jobs for the year. That is a solid gain but it is unlikely to put much of a dent in the local unemployment rate.
Highlights: After a strong August, residential units authorized by building permits turned negative again in September and have now fallen in six of the last seven months. Despite that, residential units authorized through the third quarter of 2016 are up 28 percent compared to the same period in 2015. There was a big disparity as single-family units authorized were down 24 percent during that period while multi-family units authorized were up over 60 percent. . . Both of the labor market components continued to be negative in September. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased slightly, which is a negative for the index as it indicates more job losses. Help wanted advertising fell for the sixth consecutive month, which indicates a potential slump in hiring plans. Despite that, the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in September, which was down from 4.8 percent in July and from 4.8 percent in September 2015. . . The increase in consumer confidence in September was the best monthly gain in a year and a half. . . Local stock prices were up for the fourth month in a row. Through the end of the third quarter, local stocks were up 4.06 percent for the year. This is in line with the broader market averages, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.31 percent, the S&P 500 Index was up 4.33 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite Index was up 3.99 percent in the same period. . . After falling in August, the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators turned around and was positive in September. Job growth of 156,000 for the month was solid but not spectacular. The “advance” estimate of GDP growth saw the national economy grow at a 2.9 percent annualized rate in the third quarter. This compares to growth of 0.8 percent in the first quarter and 1.4 percent in the second quarter and was the best quarterly growth in two years.
September’s unchanged reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.9. There were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for June and July and in help wanted advertising for August, but that did not affect the previously reported values or change in the Index for those months.
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Aug 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.1 percent in August. The gain was led by a strong gain in local stock prices. There were also moderate increases in residential units authorized by building permits and consumer confidence. These outweighed a big drop in help wanted advertising and small losses in initial claims for unemployment insurance and the outlook for the national economy to push the USD Index to a gain which broke a streak of three consecutive monthly declines.
There was a little concern last month as the USD Index declined for the third month in a row. Economists would normally consider that a sign of a negative turning point in the local economy. That was tempered by the fact that the change was small and that there were more up components in July than down components. The gain in August validated the non-turning point view, but it was close, with the gain being small and with declining components matching advancing ones. The outlook for the local economy remains positive, but the rate of growth is likely to slow. The growth rate of employment is already slowing, with year-over-year job growth for August being roughly 25,000 after being at 40,000 earlier in the year. There is nothing structurally wrong with the local economy, but the recovery is now starting its seventh year (year-over-year job growth turned positive in July 2010) and it would be understandable if employment growth slowed compared to earlier in the recovery.
Highlights: August saw the most residential units authorized by building permits in a single month in over 10 years. The 1271 units authorized in the month (188 single-family, 1,083 multi-family) was the highest number since June 2006 and was strong enough to break a five month downward trend in building permits. The volatility in this component is illustrated with this strong result coming after a very weak month of July. It may have come down to a developer filing the permit at the beginning of August as opposed to the end of July. . . The labor market components were both negative in August. Job losses picked up slightly as initial claims for unemployment insurance flipped back to the downside after being positive in July. Help wanted advertising continued to slump, tallying a fifth consecutive decline. Despite that, the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in August, which was down from 5.0 percent in July and from 5.0 percent in August 2015. . . After breaking an eight month slide with a gain last month, consumer confidence tacked on another gain this month. A low unemployment rate, good job growth, and stable gas prices all could be contributing to a more positive outlook by consumers. It remains to be seen whether the outcome of the presidential election will have an impact on the confidence of both consumers and investor (as reflected in stock prices). . . Local stock prices advanced for the third straight months as investors remain positive about the outlook for San Diego companies. . . After a couple of good months, national Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased in August. Job of 151,000 for the month was solid but not spectacular. The third estimate of GDP growth saw the national economy grow at a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the second quarter. This compares to the “advance” estimate of 1.2 percent and the second estimate of 1.1 percent.
August’s decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.9, down from July’s reading of 139.8. There were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for June and July, but that was not enough to affect the previously reported values or change in the Index for those months.
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Jul 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.1 percent in July. Leading the way to the downside were big declines in residential units authorized by building permits and help wanted advertising. These outweighed moderate gains in local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy and smaller positive moves in initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer confidence to push the USD Index to its third decline in a row.
Economists normally consider three straight changes in a leading index as a signal of a possible turning point in the economy. In this case, it would be to the downside. But that might not be the case in this situation, given that the decline was so small and that there were more advancing components than declining ones. At this point, the outlook for the local economy is mixed. Job growth is expected to remain positive at least through the first half of 2017, but the pace of the growth is expected to slow. That is already happening, as year-over-year jobs growth in July coming in at 28,000. This compares with year-over-year growth of 40,000 seen earlier this year. There appears to be enough momentum in the local economy to prevent a downturn, particularly with the national economy continuing to add large numbers of jobs despite weak growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The data in the coming months will be significant in determining whether there will be further weakness in the local economy or whether this is an aberration similar to that seen in the summer of last year.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits fell for the fifth consecutive month, with residential units authorized in July hitting the lowest level since December 2014. July is typically a below average month for building permits, but even seasonally adjusting the data was not enough to arrest the downward slide. . . The labor market components were mixed in July. After turning negative in June, initial claims for unemployment insurance resumed their positive trend and have now been up in nine of the last 10 months. But weakness continues on the hiring front, with help wanted advertising falling for the fourth consecutive month. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 5.0 percent in July, which was up from 4.9 percent in June but down slightly from 5.1 percent in July 2015. . . Consumer confidence turned positive in July, ending a stretch of eight straight declines in the component. Like the declines, the magnitude of the gain was small. . . Local stock prices continue to do well and ended July at a high for the year. This was achieved despite worries of a potential hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators registered another solid gain. The news at the national level remains mixed. Job growth remains strong, with a gain of 255,000 wage and salary jobs in July. That marks the second month in a row where more than a quarter million jobs were added in the national economy. But GDP growth remains slow. The second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter come in at 1.1 percent, down from the 1.2 percent previously reported in the “advance” estimate. Although that is up from the 0.8 percent gain of the first quarter, it is well below the historic average GDP growth of 3.5 percent.
July’s decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.8, down from June’s reading of 140.3. There were revisions in help wanted advertising for May and June and in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for May, but they were not enough to affect the previously reported values or change in the Index for those months.
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Jun 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.2 percent in June. The downturn was led by a sharp decrease in help wanted advertising. There were smaller drops in residential units authorized by building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and consumer confidence. On the positive side, local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy were both moderately higher.
After hitting its highest level in almost 10 years in April, the USD Index fell for the second straight month in June. As mentioned last month, economists usually look for three consecutive changes in a leading index to signal a potential turning point in an economy. For now, the outlook remains for solid growth in the local economy through the end of 2016. While the two declines have not been large, the forecast for the early part of 2017 could be called into question depending on the result of next month’s report. One positive is that the local economy has some momentum in terms of employment growth, with wage and salary employment up more than 37,000 in the first half or 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. The sectors experiencing the greatest job growth were health care (+6,700 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+5,750), government (+5,100), administrative, support, and waste services (+4,000), and construction (+3,900). Also encouraging was growth in manufacturing employment (+2,200).
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits were down for the fourth consecutive month. For the first half of 2016, residential units authorized were down 8.22 percent. Most of the damage was caused by single-family units authorized, which were down 25.01 percent, while multi-family units were down 0.53 percent. . . Both labor market components were negative in June. Initial claims for unemployment insurance turned negative for the first time in eight months, while help wanted advertising slid for the third straight month. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in June, which was up from 4.4 percent in May but down from 5.1 percent in June 2015. . . Consumer confidence decreased for the eighth month in a row. The only good news about this stretch is that each of decreases has been small. . . Despite a strong June, local stock prices finished the first half of the year down 3.59 percent. That was in line with the NASDAQ Composite, which dropped 3.29 percent, but lagged the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index, which rose by 2.90 percent and 2.69 percent respectively. . . June’s increase in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators was the second in three months and suggests a generally positive outlook for the national economy. That was the sentiment of the Federal Reserve in its July meeting, which cited strong job growth of 287,000 in June, the highest of the year. On the other hand, GDP growth remains slow, with the “advance” estimate of growth for the second quarter equal to 1.2 percent, which is an improvement over the 0.8 percent growth of the first quarter but well below the 3.5 percent historic growth rate from the end of World War II to the start of the Great Recession.
June’s decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 140.0, down from May’s revised reading of 140.3. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January and March through May, along with a revision in help wanted advertising, affected the previously reported values of the Index for February through May and the change for March.
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May 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.3 percent in May. Five of the six components in the Index were down, led by a moderate decreases in help wanted advertising and local stock prices. There were smaller drops in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. Residential units authorized by building permits were also down but virtually unchanged. The only advancing component was initial claims for unemployment insurance, and that was only slightly positive. The net result was the first decline in the USD Index in eight months.
May’s fall came after the USD Index hit its highest level in almost 10 years in April. Economists usually look for three consecutive changes in a leading index to signal a potential turning point, so the one month drop is not alarming at this moment. It does reflect the uneven performance of the Index over the last year, with a slump last summer followed by streak of positive but not spectacular gains. The outlook remains for positive growth for the rest of 2016 and possibly into the beginning of 2017. But the pace of growth is expected to slow, which has already been manifested in local job growth. In the early months of 2016, year-over-year job growth was about 40,000 jobs. The latest report for May shows year-over-year job growth at around 32,000. The average gain for 2016 is expected to be at about 35,000, which would be down from 2015 but would still be the second highest yearly gain since 2000.
Highlights: Similar to last month, the actual number of residential units authorized by building permits was pretty good, second only to April’s level. But with seasonal adjustment and smoothing, the trend was down for the third month in a row. . . The labor market components were split for the second straight month. Job losses remain low, with initial claims for unemployment insurance positive for the seventh consecutive month. But hiring plans, as measured by help wanted advertising, dipped again and was the weakest component in the Index. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in May, which was down from 4.8 percent in April and down from 5.3 percent in May 2015. . . Consumer confidence continued to tumble and has now decreased for the seven months in a row. This is difficult to explain, given that the unemployment rate, gas prices, and interest rates are all down, which should be positive for consumers. With the labor market tightening, there is some upward pressure on wages, which may help turn this component around. . . The change in local stock prices is calculated by taking the average daily value of the Bloomberg San Diego County Index for May and comparing it to the average daily value for April. Even though the Bloomberg Index was higher at the end of May than at the beginning, the average value for the month was down. . . After registering its largest advance in almost two years, the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators turned negative in May, which reflects the mixed news on the national economic front. Growth in employment and GDP remains positive but weak, with only an anemic 38,000 wage and salary jobs added nationally in May. As for GDP, the “third” estimate of growth for the first quarter was 1.1 percent, which was up from the “advance” estimate of 0.5 percent and the “second” estimate of 0.8 percent.
May’s decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 140.4, down from April’s reading of 140.8. There were revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January through April, but only the level of the Index and the change for March were affected.
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Apr 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in April. The gain was led by sharp increases in local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy. Also strongly positive were initial claims for unemployment insurance. On the downside were building permits, consumer confidence, and help wanted advertising, all by minor amounts. Although positive and negative components were even at three apiece, the positives outweighed the negatives to lead the USD Index to its third straight gain and seventh straight month without a decline..
With April’s gain, the USD Index is now at its highest level since September 2006. It has regained all that it lost during the big dip in July – September of last year. The outlook for the local economy continues to be for strength in the local economy at least through the end of 2016. Through April, the performance of the local economy as measured by job growth was solid, with nonfarm wage and salary employment up 36,900 compared to the same time in 2015. While that is down from the nearly 40,000 jobs added in the county for 2015 as a whole, it would still be the second best year of job growth since the end of the Great Recession. The leading sectors for job growth so far are health care (+6,800 jobs year-over-year), leisure and hospitality (+6,200), government (+5,100), construction (+4,800), and administrative, support, and waste services (+3,500). A disappointing sector so far has been professional, scientific, and technical services (+800), which includes the important research and development sector.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits were negative for the second month in a row. The actual number of residential units authorized was good, the highest in more than a year. But when the data are seasonally adjusted (April is the second best month of the year for residential units authorized) and smoothed with moving average (to eliminate random monthly fluctuations), the trend is negative. . . The labor market components diverged for the first time in almost two years (July 2014). Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to do well, indicating a reduction in the level of job loss. But the hiring side of the market took a slight dip in April, with help wanted advertising falling after five consecutive monthly gains. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in April, which was up from 4.7 percent in March but down from 5.3 percent in April 2015. . . Consumer confidence decreased for the sixth straight month and the 10th time in 12 months. This may reflect the unevenness in the economic recovery that has fueled the campaigns of the two “outsiders” in the presidential election. . . Local stock prices advanced sharply for the second consecutive month but still remain down for the year. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators had its biggest one month gain since July 2014. Also, the change for February was revised from negative to positive, which reversed a negative turning point signal for the national economy. As a result, GDP growth is expected to pick up in the rest year compared to a weak first quarter of 2016. The “second” estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter came in at 0.8 percent, which was slightly better than the “advance” estimate of 0.5 percent reported previously.
April’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 140.8, up from March’s revised reading of 140.2. Revisions in online help wanted advertising for March and in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for December through March led to revisions in the previously reported changes for December and March and in the level of the Index for December, January, and March.
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Mar 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in March. Strong positive moves in initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices led the move to the upside. There were also moderate gains in help wanted advertising and the outlook for the national economy. These advances overwhelmed a big dip in building permits and a small decline in consumer confidence to push the USD Index to its fifth increase in six months.
March’s gain was solid but not spectacular. The local economy remains on track to have good year. Through the first three months of the year, job growth hovers near the 40,000 mark in terms of year-over-year growth in wage and salary employment. The main worries are external forces, specifically, the health of the national and international economies. The International Monetary Fund is projecting global growth of 3.2 percent, up slightly from the 2015 growth rate. Growth in China is expected to continue slowing, although remaining above the 6 percent level. There continues to be turmoil in Europe with financial problems, concerns over immigration, and the possible exit of Britain from the European Union. In the United States, employment growth remains strong but Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is weak (see below). That prompted the Federal Reserve to decide in its April meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed cited weak growth and inflation being under the target rate of 2 percent. Interest rates are expected though to increase one or two more times in 2016.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits turned negative in March, breaking a string of six consecutive monthly increases. For the first quarter of 2016, residential units authorized were down 11.8 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Single-family units authorized were again the culprit, falling 38.2 percent in the quarter as compared to a gain of 3.3 percent in multi-family units authorized. . . Both labor market components continue to be strong. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising each advanced for the fifth month in a row. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in March, which was unchanged from the same level in February but down from 5.4 percent in March 2015. . . Consumer confidence continues to slump, falling for the fifth consecutive month. The cause of this downturn is uncertain, as the news on unemployment, employment growth, and gas prices has been positive. . . After two very bad months to start the year, local stock prices rebounded strongly in March but still finished the first quarter down 7.91 percent. This severely underperformed the broader market averages, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite Index showing returns of +1.49 percent, +0.77 percent, and -0.75 percent respectively. . . A revision in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for February resulted in a negative turning point signal, with the national index falling for three straight months from December to February. The national index has been weak, with five negative readings and an unchanged one in the last nine months. This is reflected in the weak growth of GDP. The “advance” estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 was only 0.5 percent, which is down from significantly from the 2.4 percent growth rate for 2015.
March’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 140.2, up from February’s reading of 139.7. Revisions in building permits and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators led to revisions in the previously reported change for December and in the level of the Index for December through February.
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Feb 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.1 percent in February. The advance was led by a sharp increase in online help wanted advertising along with a moderate gain in initial claims for unemployment insurance. There were smaller gains in building permits and the outlook for the national economy. On the downside was another big loss for local stocks and a small decline in consumer confidence.
With February’s gain, the USD Index has now been positive four of the last five months. As a result, the outlook for the local economy remains positive for the rest of 2016. Since the last Leading Indicators report, the California Employment Development Department released its revised estimates of industry employment for 2015, produced in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The revised numbers show strong overall growth, with nearly 40,000 wage and salary jobs added in San Diego County last year. The one disappointing result of the revised data was that employment in the professional, scientific, and technical sectors grew at a much slower rate (2,400 jobs added) than had been initially reported. Almost all of the employment reports during 2015 indicated that it was the leading sector in terms of job growth, which was significant as the category included the important resource and development segment of the local economy. The sectors with the largest job growth were health care (+7,300), leisure and hospitality (+7,000), construction (+5,700), government (+4,000), and manufacturing (+3,700).
Highlights: Of the six components in the USD Index, residential units authorized by building permits has the longest current positive streak, having increased every month since September of last year. Once again, multi-family units authorized led the move to the upside with more than 600 units authorized in February. . . The labor market components remain positive, with initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising both advancing for the fourth consecutive month. Online help wanted advertising has been particularly strong the last three months. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in February, which was up from 4.6 percent in January but down from 5.5 percent in February 2015. The unemployment rates in the first two months of the year were the lowest since August 2007. . . Going in the other direction is consumer confidence, which fell for the fourth straight month. While the drops have not been large, there is a potential concern as consumer activity is typically more than two-thirds of all economic activity in an economy. . . For the second month in a row, local stock prices plunged. The USD Index uses an average of the closing prices for each trading day of the month to measure stock prices. This led to the drop appearing worse than it was because prices fell early in the month, were flat at a lower level during the middle parts of the month, and then only rose at the end. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators returned to the positive side with a gain in February. Growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 was better than initially reported but was still weak, with the “third” estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for that quarter being 1.4 percent. That compares to the “advance” estimate 0.7 percent given in January and the “second” estimate of 1.0 percent released last month.
February’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.7, up from January’s reading of 139.6. While there was a revision in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for November, this did not affect either the previously reported changes in the Index or the Index levels themselves.
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Jan 16 Synopsis
The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in January. The advancing and declining components were even at three apiece, and each side featured one very large increase along with two smaller ones. On the upside, help wanted advertising was the big mover, with smaller gains in building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance. On the downside, the biggest decliner was local stock prices, with smaller losses in consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. The unchanged result in January broke a string of three consecutive increases for the Index.
Because of January’s unchanged reading in the USD Index, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what was previously reported: Positive growth in the local economy for 2016, although somewhat slower than in 2015. Boosting the economy will be low gas prices and relatively low interest rates. Also, the strong job growth in 2015 (more than 40,000 wage and salary jobs added) will provide some momentum, as more employment means more income, which leads to more spending, which in turn leads to even more employment. On the downside is turmoil and weakness in the global economy. Of particular concern is China, which has to deal with an implosion in its stock market, a potential real estate bubble, weakness in its financial sector, and a restructuring of its economy away from export-fueled growth to a more consumer and consumption oriented economy.
Highlights: After closing 2015 with four strong months, residential units authorized by building permits began 2016 on a more modest note with only a small gain. January is usually one of the slowest months of the year for building permits, but seasonal adjustment deals with that issue. The bulk of January’s permits was in multi-family permits for projects of five units or more. . . Both labor market components continue to rebound. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have now declined for three months in a row, which is a positive for the Index. Help wanted advertising has matched that and is now at its highest level since November 2007. As of the writing of this report, the employment and unemployment data for San Diego County for January had not been released by the state’s Employment Development Department. . . Consumer confidence dropped for the third month in a row, although none of the drops was large. Turmoil in the stock market would be one of the contributors to the decline. . . Local stock prices followed the broader market averages and plummeted in January. The Bloomberg San Diego County Index fell by almost 13 percent during the month, compared to drops of 5.50, 5.07, and 7.86 percent respectively for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite Index. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased for the second month in a row, which puts it near a signal for a negative turning point in the national economy. Growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 was slow, with the “second” estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for that quarter being 1.0 percent. That compares to the “advance” estimate 0.7 percent given last month.
January’s unchanged reading puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.6, the same as December’s revised reading. Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for September and December affected the previously reported changes for those months and the Index levels for November and December.
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| Month |
Index |
%change |
Building Permits |
Initial Claims |
Stock Prices |
Consumer Confidence |
Help Wanted Advertising |
National Economy |
| May 18 |
152.3 |
-0.2 |
-0.12 |
-0.96 |
+0.77 |
+0.15 |
-1.49 |
+0.37* |
| Apr 18 |
152.7% |
-0.2% |
-1.09% |
+0.23% |
-0.20% |
+0.11% |
-0.74% |
+0.74% |
| Mar 18 |
152.9* |
+0.5% |
-0.68% |
+1.56% |
+0.88 |
+0.35% |
+0.27% |
+0.565 |
| Feb 18 |
152.1* |
+0.7 |
+0.35 |
+1.69 |
-0.58 |
+0.41 |
+1.27 |
+1.30 |
| Jan 18 |
151.0* |
+1.3* |
+2.51 |
+0.93 |
+0.65 |
+0.17 |
+2.31 |
+2.06 |
| Dec 17 |
149.0 |
+1.4 |
-0.46 |
+0.84 |
+0.46 |
+0.77 |
+0.80 |
+0.95 |
| Nov 17 |
147.0 |
+0.5* |
-0.46 |
+0.84 |
+0.46 |
+0.77 |
+0.80 |
+0.95 |
| Oct 17 |
146.2* |
+0.7* |
-0.06% |
+0.42% |
+0.15% |
+0.54% |
+0.00% |
+2.33% |
| Sep 17 |
145.2* |
+0.0* |
-0.20% |
+0.00% |
+1.67% |
+0.04% |
-0.73% |
+0.16% |
| Aug 17 |
145.2 |
+0.1 |
+0.51 |
-0.10 |
-0.02 |
+0.16 |
-1.13 |
+0.78 |
| Jul 17 |
145.1 |
+0.5 |
+2.81 |
-0.27 |
+0.06 |
+0.27 |
-0.61 |
+.63 |
| Jun 17 |
144.5* |
+0.9* |
+3.84% |
-0.41% |
+0.48% |
+0.34% |
-0.58% |
+1.28% |
| May 17 |
143.2 |
+0.1% |
-0.20% |
+0.06% |
+0.13% |
+0.83% |
-0.60% |
+0.64% |
| Apr 17 |
143.0* |
+0.0 |
-1.58 |
+0.75 |
-0.22 |
+1.35 |
-0.69* |
+0.32* |
| Mar 17 |
143.0* |
+0.4 |
-1.42 |
+1.16 |
0.34 |
+1.77 |
-0.34 |
+0.80 |
| Feb 17 |
142.5* |
+0.3* |
-1.88 |
+0.77 |
0.73 |
+1.36 |
+0.24* |
+0.80* |
| Jan 17 |
142.0* |
+0.5* |
-1.46 |
+0.24 |
0.57 |
+1.28 |
+1.41* |
+1.13* |
| Dec 16 |
141.3 |
+0.7 |
+0.61 |
+0.34 |
0.57 |
+1.16 |
0.57 |
+0.96* |
| Nov 16 |
140.3* |
+0.3 |
+0.81 |
+0.62 |
-0.34 |
+0.98 |
-0.33 |
+0.32* |
| Oct 16 |
139.8* |
-0.1* |
+0.29 |
+0.22 |
-1.32* |
+0.60 |
-0.6 |
+0.32* |
| Sep 16 |
139.9 |
+0.0 |
-0.51 |
-0.11 |
0.21 |
+0.64 |
-0.97 |
+0.48* |
| Aug 16 |
139.9 |
+0.1 |
+0.63 |
-0.11 |
1 |
+0.46 |
-1.23* |
-0.16* |
| Jul 16 |
139.8 |
-0.1 |
-1.70 |
+0.38 |
0.82 |
+0.13 |
-1.16 |
+0.97* |
| Jun 16 |
140.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.63 |
-0.49 |
0.96 |
-0.11 |
-1.57* |
+0.48* |
| May 16 |
140.3* |
-0.3 |
-0.07 |
+0.22 |
-0.53 |
-0.34 |
-0.81* |
-0.32* |
| Apr 16 |
140.7* |
+0.4 |
-0.28 |
+0.81 |
1.19 |
-0.21 |
-0.26 |
+0.97* |
| Mar 16 |
140.2* |
+0.3* |
-0.75 |
+1.14 |
1.39 |
-0.14 |
+0.38* |
+0.00* |
| Feb 16 |
139.7* |
+0.1 |
+0.58* |
+0.68 |
-1.8 |
-0.35 |
1.43 |
+0.00* |
| Jan 16 |
139.6* |
+0.0 |
+0.26* |
+0.47 |
-2.25 |
-0.14 |
2.1 |
-0.48* |
| Dec 15 |
139.* |
+0.1* |
+1.09 |
+0.19* |
-0.81 |
-0.21 |
1.24 |
-0.64* |
| Nov 15 |
139.4* |
+0.7 |
+1.18 |
+1.05 |
0.35 |
-0.15 |
0.87 |
+0.80* |
| Oct 15 |
138.5* |
+0.1* |
+0.70* |
-0.14 |
-1.13 |
+0.44 |
-0.05 |
+0.96* |
| Sep 15 |
138.3* |
-0.4* |
+0.31* |
-0.99 |
-0.86 |
+0.28 |
-0.65 |
-0.32* |
| Aug 15 |
138.8* |
-0.7* |
-1.52* |
-0.87 |
-0.6 |
-0.05 |
-0.99 |
+0.00* |
| Jul 15 |
139.7* |
-0.4* |
-0.55* |
-1.38 |
1.23 |
-0.51 |
-1.03 |
-0.16* |
| Jun 15 |
140.3* |
+0.4 |
+0.99* |
-0.31 |
0.75 |
-0.20 |
-0.17 |
+1.12 |
| May 15 |
139.8* |
+0.4* |
+1.67* |
+0.54 |
-1.21 |
-0.13* |
0.56 |
+0.96* |
| Apr 15 |
139.2* |
+0.9* |
+2.10* |
+0.65 |
0.14 |
+0.25 |
1.04 |
+1.13* |
| Mar 15 |
138.0* |
+1.5* |
+2.45* |
+2.51 |
0.69 |
+0.87* |
1.74 |
+0.97* |
| Feb 15 |
135.9* |
+1.2* |
+1.88* |
+2.46 |
0.31 |
+0.81* |
2.38 |
-0.49* |
| Jan 15 |
134.2 |
+1.4 |
1.34 |
+2.51 |
0.85 |
+0.89 |
2.44 |
+0.33* |
| Dec 14 |
132.4* |
+0.7* |
-1.19 |
+2.05 |
0.47 |
+0.36 |
1.98 |
+0.82* |
| Nov 14 |
131.4* |
+1.3* |
-0.1 |
+2.90 |
1.72 |
+0.51 |
1.75 |
+0.98* |
| Oct 14 |
129.7* |
+0.5* |
-1.72 |
+1.82 |
0.08 |
+0.93 |
0.87 |
+1.15* |
| Sep 14 |
129.0* |
+0.5* |
-1.09 |
+1.57 |
0.32 |
+0.73 |
0.53 |
+1.16* |
| Aug 14 |
128.3* |
+0.3* |
-1.59 |
+1.55 |
-0.02 |
+1.02 |
0.41 |
+0.17* |
| Jul 14 |
128.0* |
+0.3 |
-0.97 |
+0.73 |
-0.83 |
+0.80 |
-0.19 |
+2.01* |
| Jun 14 |
127.7 |
+0.2 |
-1.57 |
+0.59 |
1.1 |
+0.51 |
-0.8 |
+1.16* |
| May 14 |
127.5 |
-0.3 |
-1.88 |
+0.37 |
-0.35 |
+0.37 |
-1.57 |
+1.16 |
| Apr 14 |
127.9 |
-0.5 |
-0.57 |
-0.33 |
-2.01 |
+0.45 |
-1.3 |
+0.59 |
| Mar 14 |
128.6 |
+0.5 |
0.23 |
+0.57 |
0.73 |
+0.52 |
-0.82 |
+1.96 |
| Feb 14 |
127.9 |
+0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.18 |
0.2 |
+0.06 |
0.12 |
+1.19 |
| Jan 14 |
127.6 |
+0.1 |
-0.12 |
-0.81 |
0.63 |
-0.02 |
0.7 |
+0.20 |
| Dec 13 |
127.5* |
+0.0* |
2.16 |
-2.44 |
+0.31* |
-0.20 |
+0.43* |
-0.20* |
| Nov 13 |
127.5* |
+0.4 |
3.39 |
-2.05 |
+0.41* |
-0.24 |
-1.14* |
+1.79* |
| Oct 13 |
127.0* |
-0.5* |
-0.05 |
-2.65 |
+0.48* |
+0.38 |
-1.49* |
+0.40* |
| Sep 13 |
127.6* |
+0.4* |
-1.64 |
+1.64* |
+0.32* |
+1.07 |
-0.95* |
+2.01* |
| Aug 13 |
127.1* |
+0.2* |
-0.23* |
-0.41 |
+0.40* |
+1.39 |
-1.18* |
+1.42* |
| Jul 13 |
126.8* |
+0.4* |
1.25 |
-0.77 |
+0.76* |
+1.38* |
-0.97* |
+0.82* |
| Jun 13 |
126.3* |
-0.2* |
0.09 |
-0.18 |
-1.00* |
+1.09* |
-1.07* |
+0.00 |
| May 13 |
126.5* |
+0.4* |
1.88 |
-0.73 |
+1.50* |
+0.40 |
-1.08* |
+0.41* |
| Apr 13 |
126.0* |
+0.4* |
0.34 |
+0.81 |
+0.55* |
-0.18 |
-0.53* |
+1.66* |
| Mar 13 |
125.5* |
+0.2* |
0.21 |
+1.27 |
+0.46* |
-0.54 |
+0.42* |
-0.62* |
| Feb 13 |
125.2* |
+1.0* |
+1.87 |
+1.09 |
+1.04* |
-0.41 |
+1.48* |
+1.04* |
| Jan 13 |
123.9* |
+0.6* |
-1.82 |
+1.54 |
1.46 |
-0.71 |
+2.16* |
+0.84* |
| Dec 12 |
123.2 |
+0.5* |
-1.17 |
+1.62 |
0.56 |
+0.15 |
+1.03* |
+0.63* |
| Nov 12 |
122.7* |
+0.1 |
-0.68 |
+1.26 |
-0.22 |
+0.59 |
-0.23* |
-0.41 |
| Oct 12 |
122.6 |
+0.3 |
+0.60 |
+0.00 |
-0.05 |
+0.59 |
-0.04 |
+0.61* |
| Sep 12 |
122.2* |
+0.5* |
+1.35 |
+0.18 |
0.75 |
+0.08 |
0.05 |
+0.82* |
| Aug 12 |
121.6* |
-0.1* |
+1.21 |
-0.62 |
-0.43 |
-0.23 |
0.48 |
-0.82* |
| Jul 12 |
121.7 |
+0.3 |
+0.81 |
-0.83 |
0.36 |
+0.18 |
0.75 |
+0.82* |
| Jun 12 |
121.2* |
+0.0* |
+1.25 |
-0.76 |
-0.41 |
+0.38 |
0.61 |
-1.02* |
| May 12 |
121.2* |
+0.6* |
+1.74 |
+0.05 |
-0.11 |
+1.12 |
0.33 |
+0.61* |
| Apr 12 |
120.5 |
+0.6 |
+0.19 |
+1.22 |
0.14 |
+1.87 |
0.24 |
-0.20 |
| Mar 12 |
119.8 |
+0.9 |
+0.60* |
+1.98 |
0 |
+2.19 |
0.2 |
+0.41* |
| Feb 12 |
118.7 |
+0.9 |
-1.43* |
+1.25 |
1.52 |
+1.99 |
0.61 |
+1.44 |
| Jan 12 |
117.7* |
+0.7* |
-0.52* |
+1.07 |
1.07 |
+1.11* |
0.84 |
+0.41* |
| Dec 11 |
116.9* |
+0.6 |
+0.85 |
+0.55 |
-0.17* |
+0.85* |
0.61 |
+1.03* |
| Nov 11 |
116.2* |
+0.2* |
+1.45 |
+0.50 |
-0.18* |
-1.93* |
0.53 |
+0.99* |
| Oct 11 |
115.9 |
-0.2 |
-1.48* |
+0.06 |
-0.05 |
-1.89 |
0.53 |
+1.83 |
| Sep 11 |
116.1 |
+0.1 |
-0.62 |
-0.13 |
-0.21 |
+0.65 |
0.61 |
+0.17* |
| Aug 11 |
116.0 |
-1.0 |
-1.30 |
+0.07 |
-3.15 |
-2.85 |
0.72 |
+0.67* |
| Jul 11 |
117.1* |
+0.2 |
-0.20* |
-0.22 |
0.59 |
-1.22* |
1.13 |
+1.01* |
| Jun 11 |
116.9* |
-0.2 |
-1.06* |
-0.49 |
-0.58* |
-1.14* |
1.09 |
+0.68 |
| May 11 |
117.2 |
+0.7 |
+0.30 |
+0.73 |
0.58 |
-0.31 |
1.29 |
+1.36* |
| Apr 11 |
116.4* |
+1.0* |
+2.96* |
+0.84 |
0.69 |
+0.43* |
1.37 |
-0.51* |
| Mar 11 |
115.3 |
+1.2* |
+2.09* |
+1.89 |
-0.36 |
+0.92 |
1.27 |
+1.37* |
| Feb 11 |
114.0* |
+2.0* |
+5.08* |
+2.00 |
0.39 |
+1.52 |
1.01 |
+1.72* |
| Jan 11 |
111.7* |
+1.0* |
+2.62 |
+1.07 |
0.79 |
+0.81 |
0.06 |
+0.35* |
| Dec 10 |
110.7* |
+0.4* |
-0.28* |
-0.08 |
1.22 |
+0.05 |
-0.03 |
+1.57* |
| Nov 10 |
110.2* |
+0.3 |
-2.09* |
+1.21 |
0.22 |
+0.21 |
-0.13 |
+2.09 |
| Oct 10 |
110.0 |
+0.0 |
-2.26* |
+0.48 |
0.65 |
+0.04 |
0.09 |
+0.70* |
| Sep 10 |
110.0* |
+0.0* |
-1.55* |
-0.39 |
0.52 |
+0.23 |
0.15 |
+1.23* |
| Aug 10 |
110.0 |
+0.0 |
-0.64 |
-0.13 |
0.08 |
+0.02 |
0.35 |
+0.18* |
| Jul 10 |
110.0* |
+0.3 |
+0.32* |
-0.92 |
-0.35 |
+1.28 |
1.08 |
+0.35* |
| Jun 10 |
109.7* |
+0.2 |
+1.59 |
-0.58 |
-1.12 |
+0.44 |
1.24 |
-0.35* |
| May 10 |
109.5* |
+0.3* |
+1.14* |
-0.30* |
-1.09 |
+0.20 |
0.81 |
+0.89* |
| Apr 10 |
109.2 |
+0.1* |
+0.15* |
-0.61* |
1.24 |
-0.92 |
0.97 |
+0.00* |
| Mar 10 |
109.0 |
+1.0 |
+0.14* |
+0.69* |
1.97 |
-0.44 |
0.87 |
+2.69* |
| Feb 10 |
107.9* |
+0.2* |
+0.85* |
0.69 |
-0.75 |
-0.64 |
0.53 |
+0.72* |
| Jan 10 |
107.7* |
+0.5* |
+0.98* |
+0.32* |
0.52 |
-0.36* |
+0.41* |
+1.09* |
| Dec 09 |
107.2* |
+0.7* |
+0.66* |
0.22 |
0.39 |
+0.02 |
0.38 |
+2.43* |
| Nov 09 |
106.5* |
+0.1* |
-0.29* |
+0.67* |
-2.84 |
+1.16 |
-0.08 |
+2.08* |
| Oct 09 |
106.3* |
+0.5* |
+0.40* |
+0.12* |
-1.31 |
+3.36 |
-0.41 |
+0.95* |
| Sep 09 |
105.8* |
+1.2* |
+1.39* |
-0.24* |
-0.53 |
+4.95 |
-0.28 |
+2.11* |
| Aug 09 |
104.5* |
+0.9* |
-1.44* |
+0.34* |
0.77 |
+4.92 |
-0.52 |
+1.16* |
| Jul 09 |
103.6* |
+0.6* |
-0.12* |
-0.79* |
0.12 |
+2.99 |
-1.15 |
+2.73* |
| Jun 09 |
102.9* |
+0.9* |
+0.68 |
-0.45* |
0.88 |
+4.65 |
-2.26 |
+1.78* |
| May 09 |
102.0* |
+0.8* |
+0.54* |
+0.03* |
1.17 |
+4.22 |
-3.46 |
+2.59* |
| Apr 09 |
101.1* |
+0.4* |
+1.26* |
-1.23* |
2.33 |
+2.78 |
-4.49 |
+2.02* |
| Mar 09 |
100.7 |
-1.9* |
-1.07* |
-0.78* |
-1.28 |
-3.27 |
-4.65 |
-0.61* |
| Feb 09 |
102.7* |
-2.5* |
-4.85* |
-1.55* |
0.11 |
-3.60 |
-4.1 |
-0.81* |
| Jan 09 |
105.2* |
-2.1* |
-4.08* |
-2.38* |
1.23 |
-3.07 |
-3.53 |
-0.60* |
| Dec 08 |
107.4* |
-2.2* |
-3.00* |
-3.64* |
-0.67 |
-2.95 |
-3.02 |
-0.20* |
| Nov 08 |
109.9* |
-2.0* |
-1.98* |
-2.39* |
-2.45* |
-1.98 |
-2.29 |
-1.19* |
| Oct 08 |
112.1* |
-2.3* |
-1.58 |
-2.56* |
-5.45* |
-1.39 |
-1.31 |
-1.37* |
| Sep 08 |
114.7* |
-0.8* |
-0.40* |
-1.94* |
-1.19 |
-0.94 |
-0.54 |
+0.00* |
| Aug 08 |
115.7* |
-0.9* |
+1.07* |
-2.19* |
1.39 |
-3.03 |
-0.81 |
-1.75* |
| Jul 08 |
116.7* |
-1.6* |
+0.82* |
-3.25* |
-0.58 |
-4.72 |
-0.74 |
-1.35 |
| Jun 08 |
118.6* |
-1.0* |
+1.93* |
-0.67 |
-1.34 |
-4.89 |
-0.78 |
+0.00* |
| May 08 |
119.8* |
-1.1* |
+0.43* |
-0.82 |
0.14 |
-4.79 |
-1.22 |
-0.19* |
| Apr 08 |
121.1* |
-1.3* |
-0.60* |
-0.86 |
0.87 |
-5.66 |
-1.7 |
+0.19 |
| Mar 08 |
122.7 |
-1.4 |
-1.96 |
+0.76 |
0.1 |
-4.63 |
-2.57 |
+0.00* |
| Feb 08 |
124.4* |
-1.4* |
-0.42* |
-0.10* |
-0.54 |
-3.87 |
-2.66 |
-0.58 |
| Jan 08 |
126.1* |
-1.6* |
-0.37 |
-0.79* |
-1.45 |
-3.19 |
-2.92 |
-0.72 |
| Dec 07 |
128.1* |
-1.0 |
+0.78* |
-1.41* |
-0.08 |
-2.61 |
-2.58 |
-0.14* |
| Nov 07 |
129.4* |
-1.8* |
-0.55 |
-3.12* |
-1.27 |
-2.44 |
-2.38 |
-1.00* |
| Oct 07 |
131.7* |
-1.4* |
-1.11* |
-2.34* |
0.44 |
-1.59 |
-2.39 |
-1.14* |
| Sep 07 |
133.5* |
-0.8* |
-1.55* |
-1.08* |
0.49 |
-1.21 |
-2.26 |
+0.57* |
| Aug 07 |
134.6* |
-1.6* |
-0.67 |
-1.36* |
-1.14 |
-2.03 |
-2.08 |
-2.13* |
| Jul 07 |
136.8* |
-0.4* |
+0.03 |
-0.91* |
0.14 |
-1.20 |
-1.32 |
+0.99* |
| Jun 07 |
137.3* |
-0.8* |
-1.08* |
-0.73* |
0.13 |
-1.57 |
-1.03 |
-0.43* |
| May 07 |
138.4* |
-0.5* |
-0.82* |
-1.00* |
0.32 |
-1.14 |
-0.96 |
+0.43* |
| Apr 07 |
139.1* |
-0.1* |
-0.50* |
-0.64* |
1.12 |
+0.52 |
-0.9 |
-0.43* |
| Mar 07 |
139.3* |
+0.1* |
+0.39 |
+0.25* |
-0.79 |
+0.37 |
-1.09 |
1.14 |
| Feb 07 |
139.2* |
-0.3 |
-0.84 |
+0.32 |
0.35 |
+1.19 |
-1.62 |
-1.14 |
| Jan 07 |
139.6* |
-0.3* |
-0.68* |
-0.13 |
0.22 |
+1.20 |
-1.50* |
-0.71* |
| Dec 06 |
140.0* |
-0.3* |
-1.67* |
-0.40 |
0.02 |
+0.81* |
-1.46 |
+1.11* |
| Nov 06 |
140.4* |
-0.3 |
-1.50 |
-0.26 |
0.06 |
+0.98 |
-0.88 |
+0.00* |
| Oct 06 |
140.7* |
-0.1* |
-0.83 |
-0.76 |
0.48 |
+0.54 |
-0.28 |
+0.00* |
| Sep 06 |
140.9* |
-0.2* |
-1.02* |
-1.36 |
0.42 |
+0.09 |
-0.17 |
+0.84* |
| Aug 06 |
141.2* |
-0.6 |
-0.11 |
-1.63 |
-0.23 |
-1.19 |
0.17 |
-0.70* |
| Jul 06 |
142.1* |
-0.2* |
+1.78* |
-1.53 |
-0.37 |
-0.61* |
-0.19 |
-0.42* |
| Jun 06 |
142.4* |
-0.2 |
1.7 |
-1.55* |
-1.06 |
-0.06 |
-0.47 |
+0.14* |
| May 06 |
142.7* |
-0.7 |
-0.48 |
-1.45 |
-0.56 |
-0.39 |
-0.33 |
-1.25* |
| Apr 06 |
143.8 |
-0.3 |
-0.81 |
-0.17 |
-0.05 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.42* |
| Mar 06 |
144.2 |
0.3 |
-0.11 |
+0.64 |
0.48 |
0.73 |
0.07 |
0 |
| Feb 06 |
143.8 |
0.4 |
-0.22 |
+1.64 |
0.33 |
0.62 |
0.17 |
-0.28 |
| Jan 06 |
143.2 |
0.1 |
-2.03 |
+1.31 |
0.25 |
0.6 |
-0.25 |
0.83 |
| Dec 05 |
143.0* |
+0.3* |
-1.74 |
+1.28 |
0.57 |
+1.24* |
-0.20* |
0.41 |
| Nov 05 |
142.7* |
+0.4* |
-1.38 |
+1.19 |
0.65 |
-0.05 |
+0.16* |
1.81 |
| Oct 05 |
142.1* |
+0.0* |
-1.4 |
+0.87 |
-0.38 |
-0.66 |
+0.16* |
1.54 |
| Sep 05 |
142.1* |
-0.4* |
-0.3 |
+0.47 |
0.09 |
-0.8 |
-0.05* |
-1.53 |
| Aug 05 |
142.6* |
+0.1* |
-0.30* |
+0.93 |
0.07 |
-0.42 |
-0.01* |
+0.00* |
| Jul 05 |
142.5* |
0.1 |
-0.50* |
+1.51 |
0.87 |
-1 |
+0.22* |
-0.28* |
| Jun 05 |
142.3* |
+0.2* |
-0.74 |
+0.84 |
0.55 |
-1.76 |
+0.37* |
+2.09* |
| May 05 |
142.0* |
-0.1* |
0.22 |
+0.50* |
0.24 |
-1.46 |
-0.3 |
+0.28* |
| Apr 05 |
142.1* |
-0.4* |
-0.20* |
-0.13* |
-0.6 |
-1.52 |
0.01 |
+0.14* |
| Mar 05 |
142.7* |
-0.4 |
0.7 |
-0.05* |
-0.43 |
-1.3 |
-0.01 |
-1.40* |
| Feb 05 |
143.3* |
-0.1* |
-0.34 |
-0.28 |
0.12 |
-0.43 |
-0.03 |
+0.56* |
| Jan 05 |
143.4* |
-0.1 |
0.61 |
-0.56 |
-0.55 |
-0.38 |
0.64 |
-0.14* |
| Dec 04 |
143.5* |
0.5 |
0.7 |
-0.10* |
0.99 |
0.22 |
0.66 |
0.49 |
| Nov 04 |
142.8* |
0.5 |
0.6 |
+0.89* |
0.82 |
0.64 |
-0.7 |
+0.49* |
| Oct 04 |
142.1* |
-0.1 |
-0.77 |
+0.96* |
0.2 |
0.88 |
-0.94 |
-0.49* |
| Sep 04 |
142.1 |
0 |
-0.12 |
0.49 |
0.78 |
0.37 |
-1.08 |
-0.49 |
| Aug 04 |
142.2* |
0.1 |
-0.22 |
+1.14* |
-0.48 |
1.17 |
-0.69 |
-0.49* |
| Jul 04 |
142.1* |
0 |
-0.95* |
+1.05* |
-0.63 |
1.47 |
-0.40* |
-0.32* |
| Jun 04 |
142 |
0.2 |
-0.64* |
+1.80* |
0.51 |
0.15 |
-0.16 |
-0.16* |
| May 04 |
141.7 |
0.4 |
-0.14 |
+2.23* |
-0.85 |
0.1 |
0.26 |
+0.81* |
| Apr 04 |
141.1 |
0.5 |
0.19 |
1.63 |
0.26 |
0.74 |
0.28 |
0.16 |
| Mar 04 |
140.4 |
1 |
-0.04 |
3.28 |
0.38 |
0.56 |
0.53 |
1.47 |
| Feb 04 |
138.9 |
0.9 |
0.38 |
3.93 |
0.12 |
0.61 |
0.27 |
0 |
| Jan 04 |
137.7 |
1.1 |
0.29 |
2.89 |
1.15 |
1.08 |
0.28 |
0.66 |
| Dec 03 |
136.3 |
0.8 |
0.85 |
1.07 |
0.09 |
1.76 |
0.34 |
0.49 |
| Nov 03 |
135.2 |
0.8 |
0.22 |
0.59 |
0.59 |
2.29 |
0.38 |
0.56 |
| Oct 03 |
134.2 |
0.3 |
0.27 |
-0.71 |
-0.08 |
1.45 |
0.12 |
0.65 |
| Sep 03 |
133.8 |
0.5 |
0.18 |
0.27 |
1.16 |
1.19 |
0.09 |
0 |
| Aug 03 |
133.2 |
0.2 |
-1.05 |
0.61 |
0.26 |
0.76 |
0.15 |
0.66 |
| Jul 03 |
132.9 |
0.1 |
-1.17 |
-0.26 |
1.07 |
0 |
-0.38 |
1.15 |
| Jun 03 |
132.8 |
0 |
-1.33 |
0.32 |
0.99 |
0.08 |
-0.63 |
0.66 |
| May 03 |
132.8 |
0.2 |
-0.27 |
-0.21 |
1.27 |
-0.87 |
-0.97 |
2 |
| Apr 03 |
132.5 |
-0.3 |
0.72 |
-0.42 |
0.77 |
-1.9 |
-1.05 |
0.17 |
| Mar 03 |
132.9 |
-0.1 |
2.07 |
1.33 |
0 |
-2.69 |
-0.9 |
-0.34 |
| Feb 03 |
133 |
-0.2 |
2.38 |
1.11 |
-0.95 |
-1.99 |
-0.59 |
-1 |
| Jan 03 |
133.3 |
0 |
0.4 |
1.72 |
0.02 |
-0.9 |
-0.89 |
-0.17 |
| Dec 02 |
133.2 |
-0.1 |
0.67 |
1.21 |
0.06 |
-1.65 |
-1.15 |
0.16 |
| Nov 02 |
133.4 |
0 |
1.63 |
0.27 |
1.41 |
-3.16 |
-1.09 |
0.98 |
| Oct 02 |
133.4 |
-0.8 |
0.3 |
-1.13 |
-0.46 |
-2.93 |
-0.81 |
0.33 |
| Sep 02 |
134.4 |
-0.9 |
-0.18 |
-1.29 |
-0.66 |
-2.05 |
-0.23 |
-0.82 |
| Aug 02 |
135.6 |
-0.7 |
-0.3 |
-1.74 |
-0.84 |
-1.51 |
0.46 |
-0.16 |
| Jul 02 |
136.5 |
-0.7 |
-1.25 |
-2.38 |
-1.56 |
-0.06 |
1.33 |
-0.33 |
| Jun 02 |
137.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.09 |
-2.13 |
-1.12 |
0.97 |
0.41 |
-0.32 |
| May 02 |
138.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.62 |
-3.12 |
-0.5 |
1.71 |
0.31 |
1.14 |
| Apr 02 |
138.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.25 |
-4.08 |
0.47 |
2.46 |
0.39 |
-0.49 |
| Mar 02 |
138.8 |
0.5 |
-0.35 |
-0.14 |
1.16 |
1.86 |
0.26 |
0 |
| Feb 02 |
138.2 |
0.3 |
0.12 |
0.81 |
-1.08 |
1.86 |
-0.08 |
0.16 |
| Jan 02 |
137.8 |
0.3 |
0.98 |
-0.28 |
-0.08 |
1.32 |
-1.05 |
1.08 |