Letter from the Executive Director
Mark J. Riedy, PhD
At our recent Residential Real Estate Outlook Conference, I asked the panelists for their views on the impact that rapidly changing demographics—particularly the growing Hispanic population—will have on California’s and San Diego’s real estate markets.
The tsunami of change associated with rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian populations in California perhaps has not reached the shore with its unique forces of cultural, social and economic demands. There still is time for those on the shore to prepare for these demand shifts, once they are understood more clearly. Research is a must. Existing residential and commercial real estate might not match the expectations and preferences of ethnic groups. New construction, urban infill/repositioning of property and renovation work all need to be cognizant of future demographic changes over the next one to two decades. Will rental housing demand exceed even today’s exceptionally high levels vis-à-vis ownership housing in San Diego? What should it look like and how should space be utilized? How important might multi-generational housing construction become? Will retail space need to change and how will investment returns and cap rates react to changing ethnicities in a shopping center?
At present there are far more questions than answers. My intent is to suggest that objective research into the implications for real estate and mortgage market supply and demand should receive much more attention starting today. Solid analyses might take a year or two to digest, re-think and publicize to shed light on the risks and opportunities inherent in the major demographic shifts heading in San Diego’s direction, not solely in real estate and mortgage markets, but across a broad spectrum. Real estate and mortgage professionals, Wall Street investment bankers, federal regulatory agencies, Congress members and others buried their collective heads in the sand during the late 1990s and first half of the next decade while housing prices soared and mortgage lenders abandoned common sense. The consequences were disastrous.
In contrast, I do not foresee the monster wave of demographic change causing great damage to the national, state or local economy. Rather, during a lengthy transition period, results will be measured by opportunity costs, slower than expected sales and leasing of commercial and residential real estate and dysfunctional mortgage markets. It might well leave industry professionals scratching their heads asking how they failed to anticipate changes in demand due to massive ethnicity shifts that were predictable years earlier. Profits will suffer for years until the next “new normal” is figured out.
Industry trade groups and their leaders are not the ones to undertake the kinds of objective research that is needed. But they can wake up to the issues and opportunities, consider next steps and partner with academic and/or private consulting groups to begin long overdue research studies.
Dr. Mark J. Riedy
|David Crowe, PhD, presents at the 13th Annual Residential Real Estate Conference Dec. 12.
Approximately 220 people attended the Center’s 13th Annual Residential Real Estate Conference, held Dec. 12 on the University of San Diego campus. The conference kicked off with a presentation by keynote speaker David Crowe, PhD, chief economist and vice president at the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C. Crowe spoke on: “The Housing Recovery: Here to Stay?”
Following Crowe’s presentation, George Chamberlin, executive editor of The Daily Transcript, moderated a panel discussion of industry experts, who addressed, “What’s in Store for Residential Real Estate in 2013?” Panelists included: Paul Barnes, president-San Diego Division, Shea Homes; Marty Conrad, regional vice president-San Diego Region, Coldwell Banker-Southern California; and Vince Kasperick ’84 BBA, founder and president, AimLoan.com.
Conrad, for one, expressed confidence in the region’s real estate prospects. He said that in the half dozen downturns he has seen in the area’s real estate market since he entered it in 1977, “When I see San Diego come back, it comes back fast, and it comes back strong.”
To view the keynote speaker’s PowerPoint presentation, go here.
Nick Norris, a part-time MSRE student and U.S. Navy Lieutenant working full-time as the Officer in Charge of SEAL Qualification Training, has been selected by the faculty and staff of the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate as the Fall 2012 recipient of the Daniel B. Woodruff Memorial Scholarship. Norris joins 20 other men and women chosen for the honor since the scholarship was first awarded in the fall of 2000.
Students are not able to apply for this scholarship. Instead, Center faculty and staff identify the one student each semester who not only meets high academic performance standards, but also has a special story or set of attributes that define him/her as exceptional. A Bronze Star Medal recipient, Norris credits his service as a combat leader with forging his perspective on the responsibility that a leader assumes and views this understanding as a critical strength he can bring to the business world.
“Combat leadership opened my eyes to the passion that I have for the universal concept of leadership in adversity,” he wrote in applying to USD. During 2012, a family tragedy struck Norris’ family when his younger brother died in a ski accident in Colorado, leaving behind his wife, 3-year-old daughter and seven-week-old son. Norris immediately flew to Colorado to be with his brother’s family to care for them and continues to lend integral support.
Norris will be recognized and offer brief remarks at the Burnham-Moores Center’s 17th Annual Real Estate Conference on March 8, 2013.
|(From left to right) Evan Lippow, Tony Konstant, Justin Farrar, Professor Norm Miller, Tom Bobo and Anthony Ly on the library tour
Master of Science in Real Estate students in Professor Ian Gill’s “Design and Construction Management” class toured the site of the new downtown San Diego library Dec. 12.
The new Central Library is located in the East Village near Petco Park. The building will be 497,652 square feet, have nine stories and include:
• An outdoor library plaza and cafe;
• A 355-seat auditorium;
• A three-story domed reading room;
• A 333-seat multi-purpose room;
• A 3,797 square-foot teen center;
• A 9,141 square-foot children’s library;
• A technology center;
• A coffee bar;
• An art gallery;
• Two levels of parking; and
• A charter high school for approximately 500 students on two floors.
Coriale from Turner Construction—the construction manager—led the students on the tour of the building, which is scheduled to open in the summer of 2013. Rob Quigley and Tucker Sadler were the architects.
Members of the Real Estate Alumni Association (REAA) Executive Committee gathered at Old Venice in Point Loma on Dec. 13 to close out 2012. The Burnham-Moores Center hosted the dinner to thank the members for their time and service on the committee in the past year. Executive Director Mark Riedy, PhD, spent the evening catching up with the board members and discussing strategies for engaging alumni in the future.
2012 REAA Executive Committee members included: co-chairs Joe Bothe ’06 (BBA) and Ron May ’07 (MSRE) and committee members Justin Brennan ’06 (MSRE); Scott Darnell ’05 (MSRE); Kate Gillingham ’09 (BBA); Jimmy Harris ’06 (BBA); Derek Jensen ’07 (MSRE); Ryan King ’10 (BBA); Zach Koucos ’00 (BBA); Jimmy Morrison ’06 (MSRE); Matt Reams ’06 (BBA); RJ Scott ’10 (MSRE); Will Strong ’09 (MSRE); Nick Walsh ’10 (MSRE); and Mary Ann Yaghdjian ’07 (MSRE).
Planning for real estate alumni events in 2013 is currently underway. For upcoming event information, contact Annie Grand at (619) 260-7619.
|Robin Madaffer, Esq.
Robin Madaffer has been named the new instructor of the “Managing the Entitlements Process” course in the University of San Diego’s Real Estate Continuing Education Certificate Program. The program is offered jointly by the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate and the university’s Office of Professional and Continuing Education.
Madaffer is a land use attorney at San Diego Land Lawyers Inc., where she specializes in entitlements and represents private- and public-sector clients in real estate, land use and environmental regulatory matters. She is the district council chair of the Urban Land Institute San Diego/Tijuana for 2011-13. Madaffer was recently named one of San Diego Metropolitan Magazine’s “40 Under 40.” She is a member of Lambda Alpha International, a national real estate economics society, and a former member of the board of directors of Community Housing Works, a San Diego nonprofit organization dedicated to helping families achieve home ownership and communities build neighborhoods. Madaffer and her husband own Mission Publishing Group, which publishes three community newspapers: The Mission Times Courier, The Mission Valley News and the La Mesa Courier. Madaffer is also a professor at California Western School of Law, where she teaches “Land Use and Environmental Regulation.”
The Entitlements course begins Aug. 6. To register, go here. For more information on the course or the continuing education program, contact Adriana Serrano.
|Norm Miller, PhD
Professor Norm Miller, PhD, has had his term as a NAIOP Distinguished Fellow renewed until Dec. 31, 2014. Miller became one of NAIOP’s first Distinguished Fellows in 2002 and served as one of the primary instructors for NAIOP educational programs from 1998 through 2008. He is the only Fellow involved at the start who still serves in that capacity.
In 2013, he will serve on the organization’s national Developing Leaders Awards Committee.
In the News
The Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s 13th Annual Residential Real Estate Conference was covered in SD Metro and 10News.
Professor Norm Miller, PhD, and associate professor Alan Gin, PhD, were included in the Dec. 7, Dec. 21 and Dec. 28 editions of the San Diego Union-Tribune’s weekly “EconoMeter.”
Executive Scholar Kevin Villani’s column on the fiscal cliff’s impact on the economy appeared in the Dec. 21 edition of the American Banker.
Alan Gin, PhD, was featured in The Daily Transcript, the San Diego Business Journal, San Diego 6 and Fox 5 News following his most recent release of the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County, which he compiles for the Burnham-Moores Center.