# USD News Center

Applied Math Project Day 2013

# Applied Math Project Day 2013

This event occurred in the past

## Date and Time

• Wednesday, May 15, 2013 from 12:30 p.m. to 3:00 p.m.

## Location

Serra Hall, Room 312

5998 Alcala Park San Diego, CA 92110

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## Details

List of Presentations:

Presentation 1 (40-45 minutes + questions)

Student Presenters: Chris Quam and Evan Karkazis

Committee Members: Dr. Cameron Parker, Philip Lau, Dr. Ani Velo

Abstract:
There are various factors that go into building a successful basketball team. Simply having the best player is no longer sufficient to ensure victory from game to game; team chemistry, defense, and streaks must also be considered.

In this research we use both traditional and contemporary statistical methods to predict game-by-game and seasonal outcomes in NBA basketball. Our work uses the Probit model to determine the probability of a team winning a game versus another opponent, as well as calculate probabilities of a win or loss. Through game simulation, we construct teams’ probabilities of winning, and make an educated choice of who will succeed in a particular match-up. In order to encompass an optimal amount of variables, the Hollinger Player Efficiency Rating (PER), as well as Points Per Game (PPG) and Opponent’s Points Per Game (OPPG) averages are included as explanatory variables.

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Presentation 2 (30-35 minutes + questions)

Title: A Mathematical Model of Serotonin Concentration

Student Presenter: Erica Nederend

Committee Members: Dr. Seth Haney, Dr. Diane Hoffoss, Dr. Ani Velo

Abstract:
Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that regulates mood, behavior, aggression, suicidality, and body weight. Regulation of serotonin is very complex and levels of serotonin tend to fluctuate in response to many factors.

We have created a mathematical model of this complex system, based on differential equations to model the concentration of serotonin in a single neuron. Our simplified model allows us to analyze the behavior of serotonin based on different parameters in order to consider the states at which all levels of serotonin are constant. Furthermore, we can input our model into capable software in order to visually observe the model and the effects of the various parameters in order to make predictions about the long-term behavior of serotonin in the body and make conclusions of the impact that these changes have on mental health.

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Presentation 3 (30-35 minutes + questions)

Predicting Extinction Using Sighting Records and Bootstrapping

Student Presenter: William Tressel