Monday, September 20, 2010
Energy Policy Initiatives Center Releases Analysis of Proposition 23
Report evaluates which greenhouse gas reduction measures could be suspended and for how long
San Diego, Calif., September 20, 2010—The Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC), a research center at the University of San Diego (USD) School of Law, today released a report that evaluates the potential effects of Proposition 23 on California’s current efforts to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Proposition 23 would suspend California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) until unemployment dropped to a specified level. The analysis released today seeks to answer two important questions: Which greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measures included in California’s plan to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 could be suspended under Proposition 23 and how long could they be suspended.
“Proposition 23 raises many questions and complex issues. Given all the attention and hype surrounding this initiative, we wanted to provide analysis on this important issue,” said EPIC Director Scott Anders. “We undertook this project to provide fact-based information about the potential effects of Proposition 23 on California’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020.”
EPIC assessed the 70 measures included in the California Air Resources Board’s (ARB) Scoping Plan, the statewide roadmap to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, to determine which ones were likely to be suspended under Proposition 23. EPIC found that 14 measures representing about 50 percent of the emissions needed to meet the 2020 reduction target likely would be suspended under Proposition 23. Based on available economic forecasts, historical unemployment data, and the interpretation of relevant language in Proposition 23, EPIC also found that if Proposition 23 is adopted, AB 32 could be suspended for 6 to 11 years. Activities to implement certain measures likely could not resume until between 2016 and 2021. [Full Press Release]