EconoMeter: Will Home Prices Rise in 2012?

San Diego Union-Tribuine -- Q: Will San Diego County median home prices rise in 2012? They dropped 6 percent from $335,000 in November 2010 to $315,000 in November 2011.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego, Answer: YES

2011 prediction, $326,000; 2012 prediction, $323,000. Median prices are a function of the mix of homes sold as much as any actual change in price. Price declines in 2011 were affected by the extent of distress sales in the mix. These will continue in 2012 at a decreasing rate. My estimate is that we will be slightly up. The upper price range is still impaired by the low conventional-mortgage limits, hurting sales in the $750,000 to $1 million range. The highest home-price ranges will benefit from the positive trends in the stock market, but overall, most markets in San Diego will be flat or up slightly. (Full Story)

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